Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Paris high of 16°C (30.5%) or 17°C (29.0%) on March 20, driven by the latest ECMWF and Meteo-France ensemble forecasts projecting afternoon peaks in this range amid a mild Atlantic high-pressure ridge. Recent model runs show a slight warm-up from earlier cooler outlooks, with southerly winds advecting warmer air masses, though persistent low cloud cover could cap maxima at 16°C by limiting insolation. Differentiation hinges on boundary layer mixing and urban heat island effects potentially pushing toward 18°C (17.0%) if skies clear post-noon, versus overcast conditions favoring lower outcomes; historical March norms around 13°C underscore the anomaly, but short-range uncertainty persists until tomorrow's updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Paris on March 20?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 20?
16°C 30%
17°C 29%
18°C 17.0%
19°C or higher 10.9%
$13,695 Объем
$13,695 Объем
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
8%
16°C
30%
17°C
29%
18°C
17%
19°C or higher
9%
16°C 30%
17°C 29%
18°C 17.0%
19°C or higher 10.9%
$13,695 Объем
$13,695 Объем
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
8%
16°C
30%
17°C
29%
18°C
17%
19°C or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Paris high of 16°C (30.5%) or 17°C (29.0%) on March 20, driven by the latest ECMWF and Meteo-France ensemble forecasts projecting afternoon peaks in this range amid a mild Atlantic high-pressure ridge. Recent model runs show a slight warm-up from earlier cooler outlooks, with southerly winds advecting warmer air masses, though persistent low cloud cover could cap maxima at 16°C by limiting insolation. Differentiation hinges on boundary layer mixing and urban heat island effects potentially pushing toward 18°C (17.0%) if skies clear post-noon, versus overcast conditions favoring lower outcomes; historical March norms around 13°C underscore the anomaly, but short-range uncertainty persists until tomorrow's updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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