Traders' near-even split between 18°C (35%) and 19°C (35%) for Madrid's highest temperature on March 19 reflects tight ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF models, projecting daytime maxima of 17-20°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia. This system has driven recent mild anomalies 2-3°C above the March climatological average of 16°C, fueled by southerly flows and ample insolation. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences: GFS favors 19°C with clearer afternoon skies, while ECMWF ensembles lean 18°C due to potential marine stratus intrusion; historical March 19 variability (±2°C) and urban heat island effects add edge to the higher outcome if winds stay light below 10 km/h. Upcoming 12Z model runs could shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on March 19?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 19?
19°C 38%
18°C 33%
20°C 16%
17°C 11%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
11%
18°C
33%
19°C
38%
20°C
16%
21°C
3%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
1%
19°C 38%
18°C 33%
20°C 16%
17°C 11%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
11%
18°C
33%
19°C
38%
20°C
16%
21°C
3%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders' near-even split between 18°C (35%) and 19°C (35%) for Madrid's highest temperature on March 19 reflects tight ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF models, projecting daytime maxima of 17-20°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia. This system has driven recent mild anomalies 2-3°C above the March climatological average of 16°C, fueled by southerly flows and ample insolation. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences: GFS favors 19°C with clearer afternoon skies, while ECMWF ensembles lean 18°C due to potential marine stratus intrusion; historical March 19 variability (±2°C) and urban heat island effects add edge to the higher outcome if winds stay light below 10 km/h. Upcoming 12Z model runs could shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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