Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 16°C (38%) or 17°C (24.5%) in Paris on March 23, driven by converging forecasts from ECMWF and Météo-France models indicating a high-pressure ridge over Western Europe, which promotes subsidence warming and southerly airflow advection. These European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts runs, updated in recent 00Z cycles, project peak afternoon temperatures of 15-17°C amid light winds and ample sunshine, aligning with current upper-air patterns showing a blocking anticyclone. Historical March 23 highs average 12-13°C, but this mild anomaly—boosted by residual Atlantic warmth—elevates probabilities above seasonal norms, while slim odds for extremes reflect model consensus on low variability and no frontal passages.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Paris on March 23?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 23?
16°C 36%
17°C 25%
15°C 15%
14°C 8%
$14,464 Объем
$14,464 Объем
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
8%
15°C
15%
16°C
36%
17°C
25%
18°C
8%
19°C
4%
20°C or higher
2%
16°C 36%
17°C 25%
15°C 15%
14°C 8%
$14,464 Объем
$14,464 Объем
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
8%
15°C
15%
16°C
36%
17°C
25%
18°C
8%
19°C
4%
20°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 16°C (38%) or 17°C (24.5%) in Paris on March 23, driven by converging forecasts from ECMWF and Météo-France models indicating a high-pressure ridge over Western Europe, which promotes subsidence warming and southerly airflow advection. These European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts runs, updated in recent 00Z cycles, project peak afternoon temperatures of 15-17°C amid light winds and ample sunshine, aligning with current upper-air patterns showing a blocking anticyclone. Historical March 23 highs average 12-13°C, but this mild anomaly—boosted by residual Atlantic warmth—elevates probabilities above seasonal norms, while slim odds for extremes reflect model consensus on low variability and no frontal passages.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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