Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 26°C (29%) as Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 26, closely trailed by 27°C (25%) and 28°C (21.5%), reflecting tight clustering in short-range weather model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS. Recent forecast updates highlight a high-pressure ridge over southern China promoting sunny skies and light winds, boosting diurnal heating from morning lows near 20°C to peaks in the mid-to-upper 20s. Differentiating factors include urban heat island effects amplifying temps by 1-2°C above rural baselines, reduced sea breeze influence versus cloudier 25°C scenarios, and model spread where 28°C requires prolonged insolation exceeding historical March norms of 24-26°C. Hourly observations from Shenzhen Observatory will sharpen resolution as the date nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 26?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 26?
26°C 29%
27°C 25%
28°C 22%
25°C 19%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
7%
22°C
9%
23°C
10%
24°C
11%
25°C
19%
26°C
29%
27°C
25%
28°C
22%
29°C
15%
30°C or higher
10%
26°C 29%
27°C 25%
28°C 22%
25°C 19%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
7%
22°C
9%
23°C
10%
24°C
11%
25°C
19%
26°C
29%
27°C
25%
28°C
22%
29°C
15%
30°C or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 26°C (29%) as Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 26, closely trailed by 27°C (25%) and 28°C (21.5%), reflecting tight clustering in short-range weather model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS. Recent forecast updates highlight a high-pressure ridge over southern China promoting sunny skies and light winds, boosting diurnal heating from morning lows near 20°C to peaks in the mid-to-upper 20s. Differentiating factors include urban heat island effects amplifying temps by 1-2°C above rural baselines, reduced sea breeze influence versus cloudier 25°C scenarios, and model spread where 28°C requires prolonged insolation exceeding historical March norms of 24-26°C. Hourly observations from Shenzhen Observatory will sharpen resolution as the date nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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