Trader consensus on Wuhan's highest temperature on March 23 clusters tightly around 15–17°C, driven by latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting daytime highs near 16°C amid mild southerly flows and partial cloud cover. Recent developments, including a weakening cold front exit from central China, have nudged odds toward 16°C (34.5%) over 17°C (28.5%) and 15°C (25.5%), as urban heat island effects in Wuhan amplify measured peaks at Hankou station by 1–2°C above rural baselines. Historical late-March averages (14–18°C) align with this range, but diurnal variability and potential for afternoon convective showers introduce uncertainty differentiating these close outcomes. Upcoming hourly updates from CMA will be pivotal for position adjustments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 23?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 23?
15°C 35%
16°C 35%
17°C 30%
14°C 12.7%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
15%
15°C
25%
16°C
35%
17°C
30%
18°C
8%
19°C
4%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
1%
15°C 35%
16°C 35%
17°C 30%
14°C 12.7%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
15%
15°C
25%
16°C
35%
17°C
30%
18°C
8%
19°C
4%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Wuhan's highest temperature on March 23 clusters tightly around 15–17°C, driven by latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting daytime highs near 16°C amid mild southerly flows and partial cloud cover. Recent developments, including a weakening cold front exit from central China, have nudged odds toward 16°C (34.5%) over 17°C (28.5%) and 15°C (25.5%), as urban heat island effects in Wuhan amplify measured peaks at Hankou station by 1–2°C above rural baselines. Historical late-March averages (14–18°C) align with this range, but diurnal variability and potential for afternoon convective showers introduce uncertainty differentiating these close outcomes. Upcoming hourly updates from CMA will be pivotal for position adjustments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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