Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts cluster Warsaw's March 26 high temperature around 9-10°C, fueling the tight race among top market outcomes at 22.5% and 21.0% implied probabilities, respectively. This reflects a stable ridge of high pressure over Central Europe, moderating advection of mild Atlantic air while limiting cold outbreaks, with model means biased 1-2°C warmer than Warsaw's March 26 climatological average of 8°C. Recent IMGW observations show a mild trend with daytime highs reaching 12°C earlier this week, but ensemble spread introduces uncertainty—cooler 7-8°C scenarios (19.5% each) hinge on potential northerly flow disruptions. Traders eye 12Z model updates for resolution shifts, as small biases in boundary layer parameterization often differentiate these narrow bins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 26?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 26?
9°C 22%
10°C 21%
7°C 20%
8°C 20%
3°C or below
9%
4°C
11%
5°C
14%
6°C
16%
7°C
20%
8°C
20%
9°C
22%
10°C
21%
11°C
17%
12°C
12%
13°C or higher
19%
9°C 22%
10°C 21%
7°C 20%
8°C 20%
3°C or below
9%
4°C
11%
5°C
14%
6°C
16%
7°C
20%
8°C
20%
9°C
22%
10°C
21%
11°C
17%
12°C
12%
13°C or higher
19%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts cluster Warsaw's March 26 high temperature around 9-10°C, fueling the tight race among top market outcomes at 22.5% and 21.0% implied probabilities, respectively. This reflects a stable ridge of high pressure over Central Europe, moderating advection of mild Atlantic air while limiting cold outbreaks, with model means biased 1-2°C warmer than Warsaw's March 26 climatological average of 8°C. Recent IMGW observations show a mild trend with daytime highs reaching 12°C earlier this week, but ensemble spread introduces uncertainty—cooler 7-8°C scenarios (19.5% each) hinge on potential northerly flow disruptions. Traders eye 12Z model updates for resolution shifts, as small biases in boundary layer parameterization often differentiate these narrow bins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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