Trader sentiment on NYC's March 26 high temperature clusters tightly around 54-61°F (each bin 25-26% implied probability), driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast of 55-59°F and ensemble model consensus from GFS/ECMWF runs showing mean maxima near 57°F. Key differentiators include the timing of a departing upper-level trough over the Northeast—prolonged cloud cover and northerly winds favor 54-55°F, while earlier clearing and southerly flow enable diurnal heating to 60-61°F. Urban heat island effects at Central Park amplify peaks by 2-3°F, but historical March 26 averages of 52°F underpin 23% odds for 47°F or below amid model spread uncertainty. Upcoming 00z updates could shift the balance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in NYC on March 26?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 26?
66°F or higher 20%
58-59°F 20%
54-55°F 18%
56-57°F 17%
47°F or below
9%
48-49°F
11%
50-51°F
7%
52-53°F
4%
54-55°F
18%
56-57°F
23%
58-59°F
20%
60-61°F
16%
62-63°F
20%
64-65°F
12%
66°F or higher
24%
66°F or higher 20%
58-59°F 20%
54-55°F 18%
56-57°F 17%
47°F or below
9%
48-49°F
11%
50-51°F
7%
52-53°F
4%
54-55°F
18%
56-57°F
23%
58-59°F
20%
60-61°F
16%
62-63°F
20%
64-65°F
12%
66°F or higher
24%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on NYC's March 26 high temperature clusters tightly around 54-61°F (each bin 25-26% implied probability), driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast of 55-59°F and ensemble model consensus from GFS/ECMWF runs showing mean maxima near 57°F. Key differentiators include the timing of a departing upper-level trough over the Northeast—prolonged cloud cover and northerly winds favor 54-55°F, while earlier clearing and southerly flow enable diurnal heating to 60-61°F. Urban heat island effects at Central Park amplify peaks by 2-3°F, but historical March 26 averages of 52°F underpin 23% odds for 47°F or below amid model spread uncertainty. Upcoming 00z updates could shift the balance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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