Ensemble weather models from NOAA and ECMWF drive trader consensus toward Chicago's March 26 high temperature clustering in the 62-67°F range, with 62-63°F leading at 30.5% implied probability amid tight competition. This reflects a high-pressure ridge promoting southerly winds and warm air advection over the Midwest, pushing well above the historical March 26 average of 48°F. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences: GFS ensembles lean slightly cooler (62-64°F) due to potential afternoon cloudiness, while ECMWF hints at clearer skies boosting 66-67°F odds. Uncertainty persists from boundary layer mixing and any late cold frontal timing, per NWS Chicago's latest guidance, with traders eyeing tomorrow's 12z model updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
62-63°F 30%
64-65°F 25%
66-67°F 25%
68-69°F 22%
59°F or below
14%
60-61°F
9%
62-63°F
30%
64-65°F
25%
66-67°F
25%
68-69°F
22%
70-71°F
11%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
6%
78°F or higher
1%
62-63°F 30%
64-65°F 25%
66-67°F 25%
68-69°F 22%
59°F or below
14%
60-61°F
9%
62-63°F
30%
64-65°F
25%
66-67°F
25%
68-69°F
22%
70-71°F
11%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
6%
78°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models from NOAA and ECMWF drive trader consensus toward Chicago's March 26 high temperature clustering in the 62-67°F range, with 62-63°F leading at 30.5% implied probability amid tight competition. This reflects a high-pressure ridge promoting southerly winds and warm air advection over the Midwest, pushing well above the historical March 26 average of 48°F. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences: GFS ensembles lean slightly cooler (62-64°F) due to potential afternoon cloudiness, while ECMWF hints at clearer skies boosting 66-67°F odds. Uncertainty persists from boundary layer mixing and any late cold frontal timing, per NWS Chicago's latest guidance, with traders eyeing tomorrow's 12z model updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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