Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Shenzhen high of 27°C (27.5% implied probability) or 26°C (23.5%), reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models amid variable spring weather patterns. Latest guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project peaks of 25–29°C, driven by warm advection from the South China Sea offsetting patchy cloud cover and sea breezes; recent soundings over the past 48 hours show strengthening low-level moisture tempering peak heat. Historical March averages hover near 24°C, but this week's observed highs near 28°C support the clustered odds. New model runs expected tonight could sharpen the outlook before resolution based on official Shenzhen station data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?
26°C 32%
27°C 28%
28°C 22%
25°C 17%
21°C or below
1%
22°C
4%
23°C
7%
24°C
12%
25°C
17%
26°C
24%
27°C
28%
28°C
22%
29°C
17%
30°C
10%
31°C or higher
2%
26°C 32%
27°C 28%
28°C 22%
25°C 17%
21°C or below
1%
22°C
4%
23°C
7%
24°C
12%
25°C
17%
26°C
24%
27°C
28%
28°C
22%
29°C
17%
30°C
10%
31°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 25, 2026, 6:17 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Shenzhen high of 27°C (27.5% implied probability) or 26°C (23.5%), reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models amid variable spring weather patterns. Latest guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project peaks of 25–29°C, driven by warm advection from the South China Sea offsetting patchy cloud cover and sea breezes; recent soundings over the past 48 hours show strengthening low-level moisture tempering peak heat. Historical March averages hover near 24°C, but this week's observed highs near 28°C support the clustered odds. New model runs expected tonight could sharpen the outlook before resolution based on official Shenzhen station data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы