Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 13°C (25% implied probability) and 14°C (23%) for Warsaw's highest temperature on March 29, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing a tight spread amid a high-pressure ridge ushering mild Atlantic air into Central Europe. Key differentiators include model disagreements on afternoon cloud cover and boundary layer mixing—ECMWF anticipates persistent stratus suppressing peaks to 13°C, while GFS projects clearer skies and stronger insolation favoring 14°C—against recent observations of low-teens highs over the past week. Climatological late-March averages hover near 11°C, but this setup boosts warmth potential. Uncertainty persists with diurnal variations; watch IMGW updates and new 12Z runs from Chopin Airport vicinity for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 29?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 29?
13°C 25%
14°C 23%
15°C 19%
12°C 14%
7°C or below
2%
8°C
5%
9°C
4%
10°C
8%
11°C
10%
12°C
14%
13°C
25%
14°C
23%
15°C
19%
16°C
12%
17°C or higher
11%
13°C 25%
14°C 23%
15°C 19%
12°C 14%
7°C or below
2%
8°C
5%
9°C
4%
10°C
8%
11°C
10%
12°C
14%
13°C
25%
14°C
23%
15°C
19%
16°C
12%
17°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 25, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 13°C (25% implied probability) and 14°C (23%) for Warsaw's highest temperature on March 29, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing a tight spread amid a high-pressure ridge ushering mild Atlantic air into Central Europe. Key differentiators include model disagreements on afternoon cloud cover and boundary layer mixing—ECMWF anticipates persistent stratus suppressing peaks to 13°C, while GFS projects clearer skies and stronger insolation favoring 14°C—against recent observations of low-teens highs over the past week. Climatological late-March averages hover near 11°C, but this setup boosts warmth potential. Uncertainty persists with diurnal variations; watch IMGW updates and new 12Z runs from Chopin Airport vicinity for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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