Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts center the highest temperature in Warsaw on March 28 around 13–15°C, driving trader consensus with 14°C at 29% implied probability amid a tight race for nearby outcomes. This reflects a strengthening upper-level ridge over Central Europe ushering mild Atlantic air, boosting highs well above the March climatological average of 9–10°C, though persistent low-level cloud cover and a potential weak frontal boundary introduce variability favoring 13°C (21.5%) or 15°C (17%). Model runs over the past 24 hours show minimal shifts, with ensemble spreads of ±2°C capturing the uncertainty in diurnal heating. New 12Z forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF expected soon could refine land surface model depictions and tip the balance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 28?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 28?
14°C 29%
13°C 22%
15°C 17%
12°C 15%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
4%
10°C
8%
11°C
11%
12°C
15%
13°C
22%
14°C
29%
15°C
17%
16°C
5%
17°C or higher
6%
14°C 29%
13°C 22%
15°C 17%
12°C 15%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
4%
10°C
8%
11°C
11%
12°C
15%
13°C
22%
14°C
29%
15°C
17%
16°C
5%
17°C or higher
6%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts center the highest temperature in Warsaw on March 28 around 13–15°C, driving trader consensus with 14°C at 29% implied probability amid a tight race for nearby outcomes. This reflects a strengthening upper-level ridge over Central Europe ushering mild Atlantic air, boosting highs well above the March climatological average of 9–10°C, though persistent low-level cloud cover and a potential weak frontal boundary introduce variability favoring 13°C (21.5%) or 15°C (17%). Model runs over the past 24 hours show minimal shifts, with ensemble spreads of ±2°C capturing the uncertainty in diurnal heating. New 12Z forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF expected soon could refine land surface model depictions and tip the balance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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