Trader consensus on Polymarket shows tight clustering around 82-87°F for Austin's highest temperature on March 29, reflecting divergent ensemble forecast models amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas. The National Weather Service's latest guidance implies peaks near 84°F, but the GFS model cluster pushes toward 86-87°F with stronger southerly flow, while the ECMWF ensemble favors 82-83°F due to potential mid-level clouds and earlier frontal boundaries. Persistent above-normal soil moisture from recent rains tempers extreme heat potential, contrasting March's climatological average of 74°F. Key differentiators include dryline positioning and diurnal heating rates; new 00z model runs expected overnight may refine probabilities before the daily maximum observation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Austin on March 29?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 29?
84-85°F 22%
82-83°F 20%
86-87°F 20%
78-79°F 19%
73°F or below
3%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
22%
86-87°F
20%
88-89°F
15%
90-91°F
10%
92°F or higher
9%
84-85°F 22%
82-83°F 20%
86-87°F 20%
78-79°F 19%
73°F or below
3%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
22%
86-87°F
20%
88-89°F
15%
90-91°F
10%
92°F or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 25, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket shows tight clustering around 82-87°F for Austin's highest temperature on March 29, reflecting divergent ensemble forecast models amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas. The National Weather Service's latest guidance implies peaks near 84°F, but the GFS model cluster pushes toward 86-87°F with stronger southerly flow, while the ECMWF ensemble favors 82-83°F due to potential mid-level clouds and earlier frontal boundaries. Persistent above-normal soil moisture from recent rains tempers extreme heat potential, contrasting March's climatological average of 74°F. Key differentiators include dryline positioning and diurnal heating rates; new 00z model runs expected overnight may refine probabilities before the daily maximum observation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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