Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward an 18°C high in Shanghai on March 29 at 31.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 19°C at 22%, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts clustering in the 17-20°C range amid southerly winds transporting mild maritime air from the East China Sea. Recent model runs over the past 48 hours highlight uncertainty from variable cloud cover and afternoon convective activity, which could suppress peaks below 18°C or allow urban heat island amplification toward 19-20°C, diverging from March climatological averages of 14-16°C. GFS shows slightly warmer biases, but overall spread underscores inherent forecast divergence; monitor CMA's next advisory for refined diurnal profiles.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 29?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 29?
18°C 32%
19°C 24%
17°C 15%
20°C 10%
$11,549 Объем
$11,549 Объем
13°C or below
1%
14°C
4%
15°C
6%
16°C
6%
17°C
15%
18°C
32%
19°C
24%
20°C
10%
21°C
6%
22°C
5%
23°C or higher
4%
18°C 32%
19°C 24%
17°C 15%
20°C 10%
$11,549 Объем
$11,549 Объем
13°C or below
1%
14°C
4%
15°C
6%
16°C
6%
17°C
15%
18°C
32%
19°C
24%
20°C
10%
21°C
6%
22°C
5%
23°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward an 18°C high in Shanghai on March 29 at 31.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 19°C at 22%, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts clustering in the 17-20°C range amid southerly winds transporting mild maritime air from the East China Sea. Recent model runs over the past 48 hours highlight uncertainty from variable cloud cover and afternoon convective activity, which could suppress peaks below 18°C or allow urban heat island amplification toward 19-20°C, diverging from March climatological averages of 14-16°C. GFS shows slightly warmer biases, but overall spread underscores inherent forecast divergence; monitor CMA's next advisory for refined diurnal profiles.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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