Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a mild high of 14°C (24%) for Munich on March 25, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating a high-pressure ridge ushering in warmer Atlantic air, with mean projections clustering at 13-15°C. This edges out cooler 12-13°C odds amid slight model spread from lingering polar vortex remnants, as DWD observations show recent diurnal maxima averaging 12°C under similar setups. Historical baselines for late March in Munich hover at 11-12°C, but anthropogenic warming and a positive North Atlantic Oscillation phase boost upside risks to 16°C, while cloud cover variability tempers extremes, explaining the tight race among top outcomes. Key watch: tomorrow's 12Z model updates could shift implied probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Мюнхене 25 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Мюнхене 25 марта?
14°C 24%
13°C 23%
15°C 22%
16°C 19%
9°C или ниже
2%
10°C
12%
11°C
15%
12°C
18%
13°C
23%
14°C
24%
15°C
22%
16°C
19%
17°C
16%
18°C
1%
19°C или выше
1%
14°C 24%
13°C 23%
15°C 22%
16°C 19%
9°C или ниже
2%
10°C
12%
11°C
15%
12°C
18%
13°C
23%
14°C
24%
15°C
22%
16°C
19%
17°C
16%
18°C
1%
19°C или выше
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a mild high of 14°C (24%) for Munich on March 25, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating a high-pressure ridge ushering in warmer Atlantic air, with mean projections clustering at 13-15°C. This edges out cooler 12-13°C odds amid slight model spread from lingering polar vortex remnants, as DWD observations show recent diurnal maxima averaging 12°C under similar setups. Historical baselines for late March in Munich hover at 11-12°C, but anthropogenic warming and a positive North Atlantic Oscillation phase boost upside risks to 16°C, while cloud cover variability tempers extremes, explaining the tight race among top outcomes. Key watch: tomorrow's 12Z model updates could shift implied probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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