Traders heavily favor a Munich high of 13°C on March 23 at 34.5% implied probability, driven by consensus across ECMWF, GFS, and DWD models projecting mild conditions under a high-pressure ridge with southerly winds and partial sunshine. Recent DWD updates hold forecasts at 12-14°C, elevating odds for 12°C (21%) and 14°C (18%), while current mild air mass—above seasonal norms of 10-12°C—supports this cluster. Key variables include cloud cover limiting diurnal heating (favoring 11°C or below at 13.5% combined) versus clearer skies enabling 15°C+ (10.1%). Ensemble spreads reflect high uncertainty from potential frontal timing shifts, with hourly observations resolving the market.