Trader consensus heavily favors 170-199 tornadoes (51% implied probability) for US April totals, aligning with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center historical average of 177 EF0+ events and current preliminary counts nearing 160 amid a hyperactive pattern through late April. Persistent supercell-favorable conditions—elevated CAPE exceeding 2500 J/kg, strong deep-layer shear over 50 kt, and ample Gulf moisture—have fueled multiple outbreaks, including over 140 tornadoes from the April 26-28 event, boosting higher bins like 350+ (37%). However, model consensus from the SPC's outlook tempers extremes, with fading synoptic support in the final days positioning the near-average range as the baseline amid verification lags in final tallies.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHow many Tornadoes in the US in April?
How many Tornadoes in the US in April?
170–199 51%
<140 37%
350+ 36%
200–229 31%
<140
37%
140–169
28%
170–199
51%
200–229
31%
230–259
28%
260–289
28%
290–319
28%
320–350
29%
350+
36%
170–199 51%
<140 37%
350+ 36%
200–229 31%
<140
37%
140–169
28%
170–199
51%
200–229
31%
230–259
28%
260–289
28%
290–319
28%
320–350
29%
350+
36%
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 170-199 tornadoes (51% implied probability) for US April totals, aligning with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center historical average of 177 EF0+ events and current preliminary counts nearing 160 amid a hyperactive pattern through late April. Persistent supercell-favorable conditions—elevated CAPE exceeding 2500 J/kg, strong deep-layer shear over 50 kt, and ample Gulf moisture—have fueled multiple outbreaks, including over 140 tornadoes from the April 26-28 event, boosting higher bins like 350+ (37%). However, model consensus from the SPC's outlook tempers extremes, with fading synoptic support in the final days positioning the near-average range as the baseline amid verification lags in final tallies.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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