Trader consensus heavily favors 2026 March ranking 4th or cooler globally (96.3% implied probability), driven by March 2024's record-shattering anomaly of 0.67°C above the 1991-2020 baseline per Copernicus ERA5 data, surpassing 2016's prior peak by 0.05°C and cementing the top three as recent El Niño-fueled outliers (2024, 2016, 2023). Ongoing La Niña conditions through 2025, per NOAA and IRI forecasts, project moderated temperatures, with multidecadal warming (~0.2°C/decade) unlikely to vault 2026 into the top trio absent extreme variability. A strong early-2026 El Niño or accelerated anthropogenic forcing could challenge this, potentially rivaling recent highs.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено2026 1-е, 2-е, 3-е самое горячее за всю историю наблюдений?
2026 1-е, 2-е, 3-е самое горячее за всю историю наблюдений?
Четвёртое место или ниже 96.0%
Третий самый жаркий 1.7%
Самый жаркий <1%
Второй по жаре <1%
$141,197 Объем
$141,197 Объем
Самый жаркий
1%
Второй по жаре
1%
Третий самый жаркий
2%
Четвёртое место или ниже
96%
Четвёртое место или ниже 96.0%
Третий самый жаркий 1.7%
Самый жаркий <1%
Второй по жаре <1%
$141,197 Объем
$141,197 Объем
Самый жаркий
1%
Второй по жаре
1%
Третий самый жаркий
2%
Четвёртое место или ниже
96%
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Открытие рынка: Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 2026 March ranking 4th or cooler globally (96.3% implied probability), driven by March 2024's record-shattering anomaly of 0.67°C above the 1991-2020 baseline per Copernicus ERA5 data, surpassing 2016's prior peak by 0.05°C and cementing the top three as recent El Niño-fueled outliers (2024, 2016, 2023). Ongoing La Niña conditions through 2025, per NOAA and IRI forecasts, project moderated temperatures, with multidecadal warming (~0.2°C/decade) unlikely to vault 2026 into the top trio absent extreme variability. A strong early-2026 El Niño or accelerated anthropogenic forcing could challenge this, potentially rivaling recent highs.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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