Trader sentiment on Polymarket for SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026 shows a dead heat between <5 (37%) and 5-6 (37%), capturing uncertainty despite Flight 5's October success with the first Super Heavy booster catch and heat shield improvements. FAA scrutiny intensified with a November notice of potential license violation over IFT-5 debris, echoing past delays that limited 2024 to five tests, while Elon Musk targets 25 launches in 2025 via Raptor production ramps and Starbase expansions. Differentiators include FAA licensing pace, rapid reusability demos like upcoming Flight 6, and orbital refueling milestones; regulatory approvals will dictate if cadence scales beyond modest trader consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСколько запусков SpaceX Starship достигнет космоса в 2026 году?
Сколько запусков SpaceX Starship достигнет космоса в 2026 году?
5-6 37%
<5 37%
7-8 15%
9–10 9.3%
$340,217 Объем
$340,217 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
<5
37%
5-6
37%
7-8
15%
9–10
9%
11-12
5%
13–14
2%
15-16
1%
>16
3%
5-6 37%
<5 37%
7-8 15%
9–10 9.3%
$340,217 Объем
$340,217 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$70,421 Объем
37%
5-6
$80,522 Объем
37%
7-8
$150,847 Объем
15%
9–10
$0 Объем
9%
11-12
$2,942 Объем
5%
13–14
$3,647 Объем
2%
15-16
$23,563 Объем
1%
>16
$8,275 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Polymarket for SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026 shows a dead heat between <5 (37%) and 5-6 (37%), capturing uncertainty despite Flight 5's October success with the first Super Heavy booster catch and heat shield improvements. FAA scrutiny intensified with a November notice of potential license violation over IFT-5 debris, echoing past delays that limited 2024 to five tests, while Elon Musk targets 25 launches in 2025 via Raptor production ramps and Starbase expansions. Differentiators include FAA licensing pace, rapid reusability demos like upcoming Flight 6, and orbital refueling milestones; regulatory approvals will dictate if cadence scales beyond modest trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Объем
$340,217Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Polymarket for SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026 shows a dead heat between <5 (37%) and 5-6 (37%), capturing uncertainty despite Flight 5's October success with the first Super Heavy booster catch and heat shield improvements. FAA scrutiny intensified with a November notice of potential license violation over IFT-5 debris, echoing past delays that limited 2024 to five tests, while Elon Musk targets 25 launches in 2025 via Raptor production ramps and Starbase expansions. Differentiators include FAA licensing pace, rapid reusability demos like upcoming Flight 6, and orbital refueling milestones; regulatory approvals will dictate if cadence scales beyond modest trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$340,217Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket for SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026 shows a dead heat between <5 (37%) and 5-6 (37%), capturing uncertainty despite Flight 5's October success with the first Super Heavy booster catch and heat shield improvements. FAA scrutiny intensified with a November notice of potential license violation over IFT-5 debris, echoing past delays that limited 2024 to five tests, while Elon Musk targets 25 launches in 2025 via Raptor production ramps and Starbase expansions. Differentiators include FAA licensing pace, rapid reusability demos like upcoming Flight 6, and orbital refueling milestones; regulatory approvals will dictate if cadence scales beyond modest trader consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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