Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 49.5% implied probability for a SpaceX IPO in June, reflecting optimism around Starship's Flight 4 success in early June and accelerating reusability milestones that Elon Musk has linked to potential public listing timing. Supporting this, SpaceX's private valuation hit $210 billion via recent tender offers, drawing comparisons to high-growth tech IPOs amid favorable equity markets. July (12.4%) and September (10.7%) follow as alternatives, buoyed by seasonal window post-regulatory filings, while "No IPO before 2027" at 12.7% hedges against Musk's repeated cautions on operational risks. Key watch: Q2 Starlink revenue updates and FAA approvals could shift these market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоИюнь 50%
Нет IPO до 2027 года 12.7%
Июль 12.4%
Ноябрь 9.4%
$63,567 Объем
$63,567 Объем
Март
1%
Апрель
9%
Май
5%
Июнь
50%
Июль
12%
Август
9%
Сентябрь
11%
Октябрь
4%
Ноябрь
9%
Декабрь
1%
Нет IPO до 2027 года
13%
Июнь 50%
Нет IPO до 2027 года 12.7%
Июль 12.4%
Ноябрь 9.4%
$63,567 Объем
$63,567 Объем
Март
1%
Апрель
9%
Май
5%
Июнь
50%
Июль
12%
Август
9%
Сентябрь
11%
Октябрь
4%
Ноябрь
9%
Декабрь
1%
Нет IPO до 2027 года
13%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Открытие рынка: Feb 9, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 49.5% implied probability for a SpaceX IPO in June, reflecting optimism around Starship's Flight 4 success in early June and accelerating reusability milestones that Elon Musk has linked to potential public listing timing. Supporting this, SpaceX's private valuation hit $210 billion via recent tender offers, drawing comparisons to high-growth tech IPOs amid favorable equity markets. July (12.4%) and September (10.7%) follow as alternatives, buoyed by seasonal window post-regulatory filings, while "No IPO before 2027" at 12.7% hedges against Musk's repeated cautions on operational risks. Key watch: Q2 Starlink revenue updates and FAA approvals could shift these market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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