Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.1% implied probability to no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting the AI lab's lack of any S-1 filing, official announcements, or stated timeline for going public amid ample private funding. Valued at $18.4 billion following Amazon's $4 billion investment in late 2024, Anthropic continues prioritizing large language model advancements—like Claude 3.5 Sonnet's benchmark-leading performance in coding and vision tasks—over public market pressures, bolstered by Google and other backers. Broader AI regulatory uncertainties and a tepid tech IPO environment reinforce this positioning. Realistic challenges include a sudden capital crunch, accelerated competitive race with OpenAI, or macroeconomic shifts prompting an earlier listing, though no near-term catalysts like earnings or conferences signal such a pivot.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРыночная капитализация закрытия антропного IPO
Рыночная капитализация закрытия антропного IPO
Нет выхода на IPO к 30 июня 2026 года 96.1%
600 млрд+ 1.6%
300–400 млрд 1.1%
400–600 млрд <1%
$661,964 Объем
$661,964 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
<100 млрд
<1%
100–200 млрд
1%
200–300 млрд
1%
300–400 млрд
1%
400–600 млрд
1%
600 млрд+
2%
Нет выхода на IPO к 30 июня 2026 года
96%
Нет выхода на IPO к 30 июня 2026 года 96.1%
600 млрд+ 1.6%
300–400 млрд 1.1%
400–600 млрд <1%
$661,964 Объем
$661,964 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
<100 млрд
$189,280 Объем
<1%
100–200 млрд
$0 Объем
1%
200–300 млрд
$99,229 Объем
1%
300–400 млрд
$0 Объем
1%
400–600 млрд
$0 Объем
1%
600 млрд+
$225,242 Объем
2%
Нет выхода на IPO к 30 июня 2026 года
$148,213 Объем
96%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.1% implied probability to no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting the AI lab's lack of any S-1 filing, official announcements, or stated timeline for going public amid ample private funding. Valued at $18.4 billion following Amazon's $4 billion investment in late 2024, Anthropic continues prioritizing large language model advancements—like Claude 3.5 Sonnet's benchmark-leading performance in coding and vision tasks—over public market pressures, bolstered by Google and other backers. Broader AI regulatory uncertainties and a tepid tech IPO environment reinforce this positioning. Realistic challenges include a sudden capital crunch, accelerated competitive race with OpenAI, or macroeconomic shifts prompting an earlier listing, though no near-term catalysts like earnings or conferences signal such a pivot.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Открытие рынка: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Объем
$661,964Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.1% implied probability to no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting the AI lab's lack of any S-1 filing, official announcements, or stated timeline for going public amid ample private funding. Valued at $18.4 billion following Amazon's $4 billion investment in late 2024, Anthropic continues prioritizing large language model advancements—like Claude 3.5 Sonnet's benchmark-leading performance in coding and vision tasks—over public market pressures, bolstered by Google and other backers. Broader AI regulatory uncertainties and a tepid tech IPO environment reinforce this positioning. Realistic challenges include a sudden capital crunch, accelerated competitive race with OpenAI, or macroeconomic shifts prompting an earlier listing, though no near-term catalysts like earnings or conferences signal such a pivot.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Объем
$661,964Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.1% implied probability to no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting the AI lab's lack of any S-1 filing, official announcements, or stated timeline for going public amid ample private funding. Valued at $18.4 billion following Amazon's $4 billion investment in late 2024, Anthropic continues prioritizing large language model advancements—like Claude 3.5 Sonnet's benchmark-leading performance in coding and vision tasks—over public market pressures, bolstered by Google and other backers. Broader AI regulatory uncertainties and a tepid tech IPO environment reinforce this positioning. Realistic challenges include a sudden capital crunch, accelerated competitive race with OpenAI, or macroeconomic shifts prompting an earlier listing, though no near-term catalysts like earnings or conferences signal such a pivot.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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