Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 59.5% probability against OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus valuation by 2026, anchored by its current $157 billion post-money valuation from Thrive Capital's October 2024 tender offer—necessitating over sixfold growth in under two years. Skyrocketing compute costs for reasoning models like o1, coupled with no recent revenue acceleration beyond $3.7 billion annualized projections, fuel skepticism amid fierce competition from Anthropic's Claude and xAI's Grok. Leadership tensions, safety team exits, and looming AI regulations further temper optimism; watch for GPT-5 benchmarks, Q1 2025 funding updates, and enterprise adoption metrics as pivotal catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоОценка OpenAI $ 1T+ в 2026 году?
Оценка OpenAI $ 1T+ в 2026 году?
Да
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Да
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 59.5% probability against OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus valuation by 2026, anchored by its current $157 billion post-money valuation from Thrive Capital's October 2024 tender offer—necessitating over sixfold growth in under two years. Skyrocketing compute costs for reasoning models like o1, coupled with no recent revenue acceleration beyond $3.7 billion annualized projections, fuel skepticism amid fierce competition from Anthropic's Claude and xAI's Grok. Leadership tensions, safety team exits, and looming AI regulations further temper optimism; watch for GPT-5 benchmarks, Q1 2025 funding updates, and enterprise adoption metrics as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 29, 2026, 3:34 PM ET
Объем
$8,741Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 59.5% probability against OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus valuation by 2026, anchored by its current $157 billion post-money valuation from Thrive Capital's October 2024 tender offer—necessitating over sixfold growth in under two years. Skyrocketing compute costs for reasoning models like o1, coupled with no recent revenue acceleration beyond $3.7 billion annualized projections, fuel skepticism amid fierce competition from Anthropic's Claude and xAI's Grok. Leadership tensions, safety team exits, and looming AI regulations further temper optimism; watch for GPT-5 benchmarks, Q1 2025 funding updates, and enterprise adoption metrics as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$8,741Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 59.5% probability against OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus valuation by 2026, anchored by its current $157 billion post-money valuation from Thrive Capital's October 2024 tender offer—necessitating over sixfold growth in under two years. Skyrocketing compute costs for reasoning models like o1, coupled with no recent revenue acceleration beyond $3.7 billion annualized projections, fuel skepticism amid fierce competition from Anthropic's Claude and xAI's Grok. Leadership tensions, safety team exits, and looming AI regulations further temper optimism; watch for GPT-5 benchmarks, Q1 2025 funding updates, and enterprise adoption metrics as pivotal catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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