**Recent Trump administration guidelines and executive actions have driven the strong 86% market-implied probability for “No.”** The White House’s August 2026 AI framework explicitly exempts U.S.-made open-weight models from voluntary pre-release government testing and review, reserving scrutiny instead for closed proprietary frontier systems that meet high cybersecurity benchmarks. Actions have targeted specific closed models, such as Anthropic’s Fable and Mythos releases, due to national-security concerns, while discussions around Chinese open-weight releases like Kimi K3 have centered on potential export controls or procurement limits rather than domestic bans. Major U.S. firms including Meta, Nvidia, Microsoft, and others have pushed back forcefully via open letters, highlighting enforcement challenges with freely downloadable model weights and the risk of ceding ground to foreign competitors. No legislation, executive order, or formal action has banned distribution or use of any open-source AI model in 2026. Upcoming catalysts include further frontier-model executive orders and congressional proposals, but the current policy direction favors voluntary evaluations and domestic open-source development over prohibition.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПравительство США запретит модель ИИ с открытым исходным кодом в 2026 году?
Правительство США запретит модель ИИ с открытым исходным кодом в 2026 году?
Да
14% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
14% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent Trump administration guidelines and executive actions have driven the strong 86% market-implied probability for “No.”** The White House’s August 2026 AI framework explicitly exempts U.S.-made open-weight models from voluntary pre-release government testing and review, reserving scrutiny instead for closed proprietary frontier systems that meet high cybersecurity benchmarks.
Actions have targeted specific closed models, such as Anthropic’s Fable and Mythos releases, due to national-security concerns, while discussions around Chinese open-weight releases like Kimi K3 have centered on potential export controls or procurement limits rather than domestic bans. Major U.S. firms including Meta, Nvidia, Microsoft, and others have pushed back forcefully via open letters, highlighting enforcement challenges with freely downloadable model weights and the risk of ceding ground to foreign competitors.
No legislation, executive order, or formal action has banned distribution or use of any open-source AI model in 2026. Upcoming catalysts include further frontier-model executive orders and congressional proposals, but the current policy direction favors voluntary evaluations and domestic open-source development over prohibition.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 13, 2026, 10:13 PM ET
Объем
$3,567Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 13, 2026, 10:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent Trump administration guidelines and executive actions have driven the strong 86% market-implied probability for “No.”** The White House’s August 2026 AI framework explicitly exempts U.S.-made open-weight models from voluntary pre-release government testing and review, reserving scrutiny instead for closed proprietary frontier systems that meet high cybersecurity benchmarks.
Actions have targeted specific closed models, such as Anthropic’s Fable and Mythos releases, due to national-security concerns, while discussions around Chinese open-weight releases like Kimi K3 have centered on potential export controls or procurement limits rather than domestic bans. Major U.S. firms including Meta, Nvidia, Microsoft, and others have pushed back forcefully via open letters, highlighting enforcement challenges with freely downloadable model weights and the risk of ceding ground to foreign competitors.
No legislation, executive order, or formal action has banned distribution or use of any open-source AI model in 2026. Upcoming catalysts include further frontier-model executive orders and congressional proposals, but the current policy direction favors voluntary evaluations and domestic open-source development over prohibition.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$3,567Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 13, 2026, 10:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent Trump administration guidelines and executive actions have driven the strong 86% market-implied probability for “No.”** The White House’s August 2026 AI framework explicitly exempts U.S.-made open-weight models from voluntary pre-release government testing and review, reserving scrutiny instead for closed proprietary frontier systems that meet high cybersecurity benchmarks. Actions have targeted specific closed models, such as Anthropic’s Fable and Mythos releases, due to national-security concerns, while discussions around Chinese open-weight releases like Kimi K3 have centered on potential export controls or procurement limits rather than domestic bans. Major U.S. firms including Meta, Nvidia, Microsoft, and others have pushed back forcefully via open letters, highlighting enforcement challenges with freely downloadable model weights and the risk of ceding ground to foreign competitors. No legislation, executive order, or formal action has banned distribution or use of any open-source AI model in 2026. Upcoming catalysts include further frontier-model executive orders and congressional proposals, but the current policy direction favors voluntary evaluations and domestic open-source development over prohibition.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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