Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (63.5% implied probability), driven by CEO Sam Altman's public stance prioritizing long-term artificial intelligence development over public market pressures, reinforced by the company's September 2024 restructuring to a public benefit corporation that enables employee liquidity without listing. A $6.6 billion funding round last month, led by Thrive Capital, pegged OpenAI's private valuation at $157 billion, reducing urgency for an IPO amid soaring compute costs for large language models like o1 and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google DeepMind. Lower odds for trillion-dollar caps reflect skepticism on monetizing AI capabilities at scale before regulatory hurdles on AI safety clear, with key watches including Q4 revenue disclosures and potential Microsoft stake adjustments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЗакрытие IPO OpenAI Рыночная капитализация
Закрытие IPO OpenAI Рыночная капитализация
Нет IPO до 31 декабря 2026 года 64%
1T–1.25T 8.5%
750 млрд–1 трлн 7.5%
<500 млрд 5.0%
$1,521,063 Объем
$1,521,063 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
<500 млрд
5%
500–750 млрд
3%
750 млрд–1 трлн
8%
1T–1.25T
9%
1,25–1,5 трлн долларов
5%
1.5T+
4%
Нет IPO до 31 декабря 2026 года
64%
Нет IPO до 31 декабря 2026 года 64%
1T–1.25T 8.5%
750 млрд–1 трлн 7.5%
<500 млрд 5.0%
$1,521,063 Объем
$1,521,063 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
<500 млрд
$254,688 Объем
5%
500–750 млрд
$136,222 Объем
3%
750 млрд–1 трлн
$127,192 Объем
8%
1T–1.25T
$168,595 Объем
9%
1,25–1,5 трлн долларов
$479,335 Объем
5%
1.5T+
$87,071 Объем
4%
Нет IPO до 31 декабря 2026 года
$267,959 Объем
64%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (63.5% implied probability), driven by CEO Sam Altman's public stance prioritizing long-term artificial intelligence development over public market pressures, reinforced by the company's September 2024 restructuring to a public benefit corporation that enables employee liquidity without listing. A $6.6 billion funding round last month, led by Thrive Capital, pegged OpenAI's private valuation at $157 billion, reducing urgency for an IPO amid soaring compute costs for large language models like o1 and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google DeepMind. Lower odds for trillion-dollar caps reflect skepticism on monetizing AI capabilities at scale before regulatory hurdles on AI safety clear, with key watches including Q4 revenue disclosures and potential Microsoft stake adjustments.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Открытие рынка: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Объем
$1,521,063Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (63.5% implied probability), driven by CEO Sam Altman's public stance prioritizing long-term artificial intelligence development over public market pressures, reinforced by the company's September 2024 restructuring to a public benefit corporation that enables employee liquidity without listing. A $6.6 billion funding round last month, led by Thrive Capital, pegged OpenAI's private valuation at $157 billion, reducing urgency for an IPO amid soaring compute costs for large language models like o1 and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google DeepMind. Lower odds for trillion-dollar caps reflect skepticism on monetizing AI capabilities at scale before regulatory hurdles on AI safety clear, with key watches including Q4 revenue disclosures and potential Microsoft stake adjustments.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Объем
$1,521,063Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (63.5% implied probability), driven by CEO Sam Altman's public stance prioritizing long-term artificial intelligence development over public market pressures, reinforced by the company's September 2024 restructuring to a public benefit corporation that enables employee liquidity without listing. A $6.6 billion funding round last month, led by Thrive Capital, pegged OpenAI's private valuation at $157 billion, reducing urgency for an IPO amid soaring compute costs for large language models like o1 and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google DeepMind. Lower odds for trillion-dollar caps reflect skepticism on monetizing AI capabilities at scale before regulatory hurdles on AI safety clear, with key watches including Q4 revenue disclosures and potential Microsoft stake adjustments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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