Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33.5% implied probability for no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027—slightly ahead of the 29.0% for a 750B–1T closing market cap—reflecting internal tensions and investor scrutiny following the firm's record $122 billion funding round in late March 2026, which lifted its private valuation to $852 billion. CFO Sarah Friar's reservations over explosive compute spending (projected at $121 billion for 2028), decelerating revenue growth amid an enterprise pivot, and organizational upheaval have fueled doubts on Q4 2026 listing readiness, even as CEO Sam Altman pushes forward with retail share reservations. Competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI, alongside cooling public sentiment toward AI data centers, cap upside potential, while regulatory hurdles and cash burn through 2030 heighten uncertainty ahead of any S-1 filing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года 33%
750 млрд – 1 трлн 23%
1–1,25 трлн 14%
1,25–1,5 трлн 11%
$14,113 Объем
$14,113 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
<500 млрд
7%
500–750 млрд
26%
750 млрд – 1 трлн
23%
1–1,25 трлн
18%
1,25–1,5 трлн
11%
1,5Т+
14%
Без IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года
33%
Без IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года 33%
750 млрд – 1 трлн 23%
1–1,25 трлн 14%
1,25–1,5 трлн 11%
$14,113 Объем
$14,113 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
<500 млрд
$62 Объем
7%
500–750 млрд
$84 Объем
26%
750 млрд – 1 трлн
$97 Объем
23%
1–1,25 трлн
$2,920 Объем
18%
1,25–1,5 трлн
$126 Объем
11%
1,5Т+
$42 Объем
14%
Без IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года
$10,783 Объем
33%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33.5% implied probability for no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027—slightly ahead of the 29.0% for a 750B–1T closing market cap—reflecting internal tensions and investor scrutiny following the firm's record $122 billion funding round in late March 2026, which lifted its private valuation to $852 billion. CFO Sarah Friar's reservations over explosive compute spending (projected at $121 billion for 2028), decelerating revenue growth amid an enterprise pivot, and organizational upheaval have fueled doubts on Q4 2026 listing readiness, even as CEO Sam Altman pushes forward with retail share reservations. Competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI, alongside cooling public sentiment toward AI data centers, cap upside potential, while regulatory hurdles and cash burn through 2030 heighten uncertainty ahead of any S-1 filing.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Открытие рынка: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Объем
$14,113Дата окончания
31 дек. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33.5% implied probability for no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027—slightly ahead of the 29.0% for a 750B–1T closing market cap—reflecting internal tensions and investor scrutiny following the firm's record $122 billion funding round in late March 2026, which lifted its private valuation to $852 billion. CFO Sarah Friar's reservations over explosive compute spending (projected at $121 billion for 2028), decelerating revenue growth amid an enterprise pivot, and organizational upheaval have fueled doubts on Q4 2026 listing readiness, even as CEO Sam Altman pushes forward with retail share reservations. Competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI, alongside cooling public sentiment toward AI data centers, cap upside potential, while regulatory hurdles and cash burn through 2030 heighten uncertainty ahead of any S-1 filing.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Объем
$14,113Дата окончания
31 дек. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33.5% implied probability for no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027—slightly ahead of the 29.0% for a 750B–1T closing market cap—reflecting internal tensions and investor scrutiny following the firm's record $122 billion funding round in late March 2026, which lifted its private valuation to $852 billion. CFO Sarah Friar's reservations over explosive compute spending (projected at $121 billion for 2028), decelerating revenue growth amid an enterprise pivot, and organizational upheaval have fueled doubts on Q4 2026 listing readiness, even as CEO Sam Altman pushes forward with retail share reservations. Competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI, alongside cooling public sentiment toward AI data centers, cap upside potential, while regulatory hurdles and cash burn through 2030 heighten uncertainty ahead of any S-1 filing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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