Recent reports of internal tensions at OpenAI, where CFO Sarah Friar has flagged CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 2026 IPO timeline as risky amid massive projected compute spending—up to $121 billion by 2028—have tilted trader consensus toward Anthropic going public first, with market-implied odds at 63.5%. Anthropic has advanced preparations, hiring law firm Wilson Sonsini and engaging bankers for a potential October debut targeting over $60 billion in proceeds, bolstered by rapidly closing the annualized revenue gap with OpenAI from $5 billion at the start of 2025. Both AI labs eye blockbuster listings amid a rebounding IPO market, but OpenAI's leadership rift introduces delays, while key catalysts like SEC filings or revenue disclosures could shift sentiment before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAnthropic
$52,463 Объем
$52,463 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
Anthropic
$52,463 Объем
$52,463 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Recent reports of internal tensions at OpenAI, where CFO Sarah Friar has flagged CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 2026 IPO timeline as risky amid massive projected compute spending—up to $121 billion by 2028—have tilted trader consensus toward Anthropic going public first, with market-implied odds at 63.5%. Anthropic has advanced preparations, hiring law firm Wilson Sonsini and engaging bankers for a potential October debut targeting over $60 billion in proceeds, bolstered by rapidly closing the annualized revenue gap with OpenAI from $5 billion at the start of 2025. Both AI labs eye blockbuster listings amid a rebounding IPO market, but OpenAI's leadership rift introduces delays, while key catalysts like SEC filings or revenue disclosures could shift sentiment before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Объем
$52,463Дата окончания
31 дек. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Recent reports of internal tensions at OpenAI, where CFO Sarah Friar has flagged CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 2026 IPO timeline as risky amid massive projected compute spending—up to $121 billion by 2028—have tilted trader consensus toward Anthropic going public first, with market-implied odds at 63.5%. Anthropic has advanced preparations, hiring law firm Wilson Sonsini and engaging bankers for a potential October debut targeting over $60 billion in proceeds, bolstered by rapidly closing the annualized revenue gap with OpenAI from $5 billion at the start of 2025. Both AI labs eye blockbuster listings amid a rebounding IPO market, but OpenAI's leadership rift introduces delays, while key catalysts like SEC filings or revenue disclosures could shift sentiment before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$52,463Дата окончания
31 дек. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent reports of internal tensions at OpenAI, where CFO Sarah Friar has flagged CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 2026 IPO timeline as risky amid massive projected compute spending—up to $121 billion by 2028—have tilted trader consensus toward Anthropic going public first, with market-implied odds at 63.5%. Anthropic has advanced preparations, hiring law firm Wilson Sonsini and engaging bankers for a potential October debut targeting over $60 billion in proceeds, bolstered by rapidly closing the annualized revenue gap with OpenAI from $5 billion at the start of 2025. Both AI labs eye blockbuster listings amid a rebounding IPO market, but OpenAI's leadership rift introduces delays, while key catalysts like SEC filings or revenue disclosures could shift sentiment before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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