Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 52% implied probability to Anthropic releasing Claude 5 by June 30, 2026, reflecting the company's explosive 2026 roadmap of biweekly updates—including Opus 4.6 in February and March agentic tools like Claude Code and Remote Worker—yet persistent 4.x naming amid no official Claude 5 announcement. A recent code leak exposed plans for highly autonomous agents with memory and proactive execution, fueling speculation of an imminent frontier model leap, but reliability issues from surging user demand have tempered near-term bets, with only 13% for April 30. Competitive pressures from OpenAI and Google, plus Anthropic's 9-month release cycles, position Q2 as realistic, though timelines often slip on safety evaluations. Watch for developer previews or earnings hints in coming weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКлод 5 выпущен...?
Клод 5 выпущен...?
$2,018,637 Объем
30 апреля 2026 года
19%
31 мая 2026 года
24%
June 30, 2026
52%
$2,018,637 Объем
30 апреля 2026 года
19%
31 мая 2026 года
24%
June 30, 2026
52%
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Feb 10, 2026, 11:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 52% implied probability to Anthropic releasing Claude 5 by June 30, 2026, reflecting the company's explosive 2026 roadmap of biweekly updates—including Opus 4.6 in February and March agentic tools like Claude Code and Remote Worker—yet persistent 4.x naming amid no official Claude 5 announcement. A recent code leak exposed plans for highly autonomous agents with memory and proactive execution, fueling speculation of an imminent frontier model leap, but reliability issues from surging user demand have tempered near-term bets, with only 13% for April 30. Competitive pressures from OpenAI and Google, plus Anthropic's 9-month release cycles, position Q2 as realistic, though timelines often slip on safety evaluations. Watch for developer previews or earnings hints in coming weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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