Traders price a 52% implied probability for Anthropic releasing Claude 5 by June 30, 2026, on Polymarket, driven by the absence of an official full-family announcement despite accelerating progress. Late March saw Claude Sonnet 5 launch with exceptional benchmarks, including 92.4% on SWE-bench for coding tasks, positioning it as a frontrunner in large language model capabilities amid fierce competition from OpenAI's GPT series and Google's Gemini. Leaks of "Claude Mythos" (likely Opus 5 beta) exposed superior reasoning and security features, but restricted access highlights AI safety hurdles delaying public rollout. March's 14+ Claude updates and outages reflect intense development, with Q2 events like potential earnings calls as key catalysts for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКлод 5 выпущен...?
Клод 5 выпущен...?
$2,010,871 Объем
30 апреля 2026 года
17%
31 мая 2026 года
23%
June 30, 2026
52%
$2,010,871 Объем
30 апреля 2026 года
17%
31 мая 2026 года
23%
June 30, 2026
52%
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Feb 10, 2026, 11:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Traders price a 52% implied probability for Anthropic releasing Claude 5 by June 30, 2026, on Polymarket, driven by the absence of an official full-family announcement despite accelerating progress. Late March saw Claude Sonnet 5 launch with exceptional benchmarks, including 92.4% on SWE-bench for coding tasks, positioning it as a frontrunner in large language model capabilities amid fierce competition from OpenAI's GPT series and Google's Gemini. Leaks of "Claude Mythos" (likely Opus 5 beta) exposed superior reasoning and security features, but restricted access highlights AI safety hurdles delaying public rollout. March's 14+ Claude updates and outages reflect intense development, with Q2 events like potential earnings calls as key catalysts for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы