Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Google at 97.5% implied probability for possessing the third-best AI model by end of March, driven by LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard standings as of March 31, where Gemini 1.5 Pro trailed only OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo and Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus in Elo ratings. This positioning solidified after Claude 3's early March launch leapfrogged prior leaders without subsequent challengers like xAI's Grok or Mistral's models closing the gap in verified benchmarks. No major releases or capability demonstrations shifted rankings in late March, reinforcing Google's stable third place amid competitive large language model races. Realistic challenges include rare post-period leaderboard revisions or disputes over benchmark methodologies, though skin-in-the-game traders see minimal risk given the data's consistency.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакая компания имеет третью лучшую модель ИИ в конце марта?
Какая компания имеет третью лучшую модель ИИ в конце марта?
Google 97.5%
xAI 1.8%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$432,231 Объем
$432,231 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
98%
xAI
2%
OpenAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Google 97.5%
xAI 1.8%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$432,231 Объем
$432,231 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
$46,465 Объем
98%
xAI
$30,440 Объем
2%
OpenAI
$48,184 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$33,879 Объем
<1%
Anthropic
$61,686 Объем
<1%
Alibaba
$33,467 Объем
<1%
DeepSeek
$48,537 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$51,744 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$50,997 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$0 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$26,832 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Google at 97.5% implied probability for possessing the third-best AI model by end of March, driven by LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard standings as of March 31, where Gemini 1.5 Pro trailed only OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo and Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus in Elo ratings. This positioning solidified after Claude 3's early March launch leapfrogged prior leaders without subsequent challengers like xAI's Grok or Mistral's models closing the gap in verified benchmarks. No major releases or capability demonstrations shifted rankings in late March, reinforcing Google's stable third place amid competitive large language model races. Realistic challenges include rare post-period leaderboard revisions or disputes over benchmark methodologies, though skin-in-the-game traders see minimal risk given the data's consistency.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Объем
$432,231Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Google at 97.5% implied probability for possessing the third-best AI model by end of March, driven by LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard standings as of March 31, where Gemini 1.5 Pro trailed only OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo and Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus in Elo ratings. This positioning solidified after Claude 3's early March launch leapfrogged prior leaders without subsequent challengers like xAI's Grok or Mistral's models closing the gap in verified benchmarks. No major releases or capability demonstrations shifted rankings in late March, reinforcing Google's stable third place amid competitive large language model races. Realistic challenges include rare post-period leaderboard revisions or disputes over benchmark methodologies, though skin-in-the-game traders see minimal risk given the data's consistency.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$432,231Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Google at 97.5% implied probability for possessing the third-best AI model by end of March, driven by LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard standings as of March 31, where Gemini 1.5 Pro trailed only OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo and Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus in Elo ratings. This positioning solidified after Claude 3's early March launch leapfrogged prior leaders without subsequent challengers like xAI's Grok or Mistral's models closing the gap in verified benchmarks. No major releases or capability demonstrations shifted rankings in late March, reinforcing Google's stable third place amid competitive large language model races. Realistic challenges include rare post-period leaderboard revisions or disputes over benchmark methodologies, though skin-in-the-game traders see minimal risk given the data's consistency.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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