Trader consensus gives Google a 94.3% implied probability of claiming the #3 large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by March 31, as Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview holds third place at 1489 Elo—trailing only Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants—thanks to two weeks of leaderboard stability and superior substance-focused performance that resists style biases like verbosity. This positioning stems from February's Gemini updates bolstering competitive standing in blind user battles, outpacing xAI's Grok and others without major interlopers. Realistic challenges include a late xAI fine-tune surging via fresh votes or an unexpected OpenAI/Anthropic secondary model leap before snapshot, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакая компания имеет модель искусственного интеллекта №3 в конце марта? (Управление стилем включено)
Какая компания имеет модель искусственного интеллекта №3 в конце марта? (Управление стилем включено)
Google 94.3%
xAI 3.4%
Anthropic 2.1%
Z.ai <1%
$366,561 Объем
$366,561 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
94%
xAI
3%
Anthropic
2%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Google 94.3%
xAI 3.4%
Anthropic 2.1%
Z.ai <1%
$366,561 Объем
$366,561 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
$36,954 Объем
94%
xAI
$29,520 Объем
3%
Anthropic
$33,425 Объем
2%
Z.ai
$130,083 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$15,811 Объем
<1%
Alibaba
$23,085 Объем
<1%
OpenAI
$30,507 Объем
<1%
DeepSeek
$36,206 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$19,343 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$11,628 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus gives Google a 94.3% implied probability of claiming the #3 large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by March 31, as Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview holds third place at 1489 Elo—trailing only Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants—thanks to two weeks of leaderboard stability and superior substance-focused performance that resists style biases like verbosity. This positioning stems from February's Gemini updates bolstering competitive standing in blind user battles, outpacing xAI's Grok and others without major interlopers. Realistic challenges include a late xAI fine-tune surging via fresh votes or an unexpected OpenAI/Anthropic secondary model leap before snapshot, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Объем
$366,561Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus gives Google a 94.3% implied probability of claiming the #3 large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by March 31, as Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview holds third place at 1489 Elo—trailing only Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants—thanks to two weeks of leaderboard stability and superior substance-focused performance that resists style biases like verbosity. This positioning stems from February's Gemini updates bolstering competitive standing in blind user battles, outpacing xAI's Grok and others without major interlopers. Realistic challenges include a late xAI fine-tune surging via fresh votes or an unexpected OpenAI/Anthropic secondary model leap before snapshot, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$366,561Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives Google a 94.3% implied probability of claiming the #3 large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by March 31, as Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview holds third place at 1489 Elo—trailing only Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants—thanks to two weeks of leaderboard stability and superior substance-focused performance that resists style biases like verbosity. This positioning stems from February's Gemini updates bolstering competitive standing in blind user battles, outpacing xAI's Grok and others without major interlopers. Realistic challenges include a late xAI fine-tune surging via fresh votes or an unexpected OpenAI/Anthropic secondary model leap before snapshot, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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