Anthropic commands a 97.9% implied probability on Polymarket for owning the top AI model by March 31 in the LMArena Chatbot Arena's Style Control On category, propelled by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model's dominant 1504 Elo rating—well ahead of rivals like xAI's Grok-4.20 beta at 1491 and Google's Gemini variants. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive Q1 2026 roadmap execution, including Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 releases alongside breakthroughs like 1M context windows, memory features, and computer use capabilities, yielding superior performance in crowdsourced LLM battles. While the lead appears unassailable with millions in battle votes, a last-minute frontier model drop from xAI, OpenAI, or Google—backed by fresh benchmarks—could challenge it before the end-of-month snapshot.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакая компания имеет лучшую модель ИИ в конце марта? (Управление стилем включено)
Какая компания имеет лучшую модель ИИ в конце марта? (Управление стилем включено)
Anthropic 97.6%
xAI 1.0%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$940,546 Объем
$940,546 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
98%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 97.6%
xAI 1.0%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$940,546 Объем
$940,546 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$56,318 Объем
98%
xAI
$61,802 Объем
1%
DeepSeek
$100,136 Объем
1%
$112,207 Объем
<1%
OpenAI
$103,319 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$219,787 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$46,579 Объем
<1%
Alibaba
$86,974 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$55,186 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$98,237 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands a 97.9% implied probability on Polymarket for owning the top AI model by March 31 in the LMArena Chatbot Arena's Style Control On category, propelled by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model's dominant 1504 Elo rating—well ahead of rivals like xAI's Grok-4.20 beta at 1491 and Google's Gemini variants. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive Q1 2026 roadmap execution, including Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 releases alongside breakthroughs like 1M context windows, memory features, and computer use capabilities, yielding superior performance in crowdsourced LLM battles. While the lead appears unassailable with millions in battle votes, a last-minute frontier model drop from xAI, OpenAI, or Google—backed by fresh benchmarks—could challenge it before the end-of-month snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Объем
$940,546Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands a 97.9% implied probability on Polymarket for owning the top AI model by March 31 in the LMArena Chatbot Arena's Style Control On category, propelled by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model's dominant 1504 Elo rating—well ahead of rivals like xAI's Grok-4.20 beta at 1491 and Google's Gemini variants. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive Q1 2026 roadmap execution, including Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 releases alongside breakthroughs like 1M context windows, memory features, and computer use capabilities, yielding superior performance in crowdsourced LLM battles. While the lead appears unassailable with millions in battle votes, a last-minute frontier model drop from xAI, OpenAI, or Google—backed by fresh benchmarks—could challenge it before the end-of-month snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$940,546Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic commands a 97.9% implied probability on Polymarket for owning the top AI model by March 31 in the LMArena Chatbot Arena's Style Control On category, propelled by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model's dominant 1504 Elo rating—well ahead of rivals like xAI's Grok-4.20 beta at 1491 and Google's Gemini variants. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive Q1 2026 roadmap execution, including Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 releases alongside breakthroughs like 1M context windows, memory features, and computer use capabilities, yielding superior performance in crowdsourced LLM battles. While the lead appears unassailable with millions in battle votes, a last-minute frontier model drop from xAI, OpenAI, or Google—backed by fresh benchmarks—could challenge it before the end-of-month snapshot.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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