Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Anthropic with 97.5% implied probability for the top AI model by end of March, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its early March release and subsequent enhancements like computer-use capabilities, 1M-token context windows, and Skills API integration. These updates have boosted Elo ratings across text, coding, and multimodal benchmarks, solidifying competitive positioning amid rapid iteration outpacing rivals such as xAI's Grok-4 and Google's Gemini 3.1. With mere days until resolution, a late-breaking model drop or anomalous voting surge from OpenAI or others could theoretically challenge the lead, though the narrow window and Anthropic's momentum make such shifts improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакая компания имеет лучшую модель ИИ в конце марта? (Управление стилем включено)
Какая компания имеет лучшую модель ИИ в конце марта? (Управление стилем включено)
Anthropic 97.4%
xAI 1.1%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
$963,198 Объем
$963,198 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
97%
xAI
1%
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 97.4%
xAI 1.1%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
$963,198 Объем
$963,198 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$57,709 Объем
97%
xAI
$63,511 Объем
1%
$113,812 Объем
<1%
OpenAI
$108,046 Объем
<1%
DeepSeek
$104,694 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$100,181 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$47,912 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$221,867 Объем
<1%
Alibaba
$88,954 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$56,513 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Anthropic with 97.5% implied probability for the top AI model by end of March, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its early March release and subsequent enhancements like computer-use capabilities, 1M-token context windows, and Skills API integration. These updates have boosted Elo ratings across text, coding, and multimodal benchmarks, solidifying competitive positioning amid rapid iteration outpacing rivals such as xAI's Grok-4 and Google's Gemini 3.1. With mere days until resolution, a late-breaking model drop or anomalous voting surge from OpenAI or others could theoretically challenge the lead, though the narrow window and Anthropic's momentum make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Объем
$963,198Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Anthropic with 97.5% implied probability for the top AI model by end of March, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its early March release and subsequent enhancements like computer-use capabilities, 1M-token context windows, and Skills API integration. These updates have boosted Elo ratings across text, coding, and multimodal benchmarks, solidifying competitive positioning amid rapid iteration outpacing rivals such as xAI's Grok-4 and Google's Gemini 3.1. With mere days until resolution, a late-breaking model drop or anomalous voting surge from OpenAI or others could theoretically challenge the lead, though the narrow window and Anthropic's momentum make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$963,198Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Anthropic with 97.5% implied probability for the top AI model by end of March, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its early March release and subsequent enhancements like computer-use capabilities, 1M-token context windows, and Skills API integration. These updates have boosted Elo ratings across text, coding, and multimodal benchmarks, solidifying competitive positioning amid rapid iteration outpacing rivals such as xAI's Grok-4 and Google's Gemini 3.1. With mere days until resolution, a late-breaking model drop or anomalous voting surge from OpenAI or others could theoretically challenge the lead, though the narrow window and Anthropic's momentum make such shifts improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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