Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability against an AWS service disruption by April 30, driven by sustained operational stability across core regions like US East and Europe following the containment of March's Middle East physical attacks. Drone strikes damaged data centers in Bahrain (me-south-1) and UAE (me-central-1) starting March 1, causing prolonged outages in those low-traffic availability zones, but AWS's multi-region architecture enabled seamless failover via software mitigations like traffic shifting and S3 Cross-Region Replication, preventing global impact. No new incidents reported in April per the AWS Health Dashboard and Downdetector, bolstered by post-outage safeguards such as senior engineer sign-offs on AI-assisted changes. With 12 days remaining and no scheduled maintenance, escalation in regional conflict remains the key risk catalyst.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAWS service disrupted by April 30?
AWS service disrupted by April 30?
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 апр. 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 апр. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability against an AWS service disruption by April 30, driven by sustained operational stability across core regions like US East and Europe following the containment of March's Middle East physical attacks. Drone strikes damaged data centers in Bahrain (me-south-1) and UAE (me-central-1) starting March 1, causing prolonged outages in those low-traffic availability zones, but AWS's multi-region architecture enabled seamless failover via software mitigations like traffic shifting and S3 Cross-Region Replication, preventing global impact. No new incidents reported in April per the AWS Health Dashboard and Downdetector, bolstered by post-outage safeguards such as senior engineer sign-offs on AI-assisted changes. With 12 days remaining and no scheduled maintenance, escalation in regional conflict remains the key risk catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 12:59 PM ET
Объем
$5,614Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 12:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability against an AWS service disruption by April 30, driven by sustained operational stability across core regions like US East and Europe following the containment of March's Middle East physical attacks. Drone strikes damaged data centers in Bahrain (me-south-1) and UAE (me-central-1) starting March 1, causing prolonged outages in those low-traffic availability zones, but AWS's multi-region architecture enabled seamless failover via software mitigations like traffic shifting and S3 Cross-Region Replication, preventing global impact. No new incidents reported in April per the AWS Health Dashboard and Downdetector, bolstered by post-outage safeguards such as senior engineer sign-offs on AI-assisted changes. With 12 days remaining and no scheduled maintenance, escalation in regional conflict remains the key risk catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
Объем
$5,614Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 12:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability against an AWS service disruption by April 30, driven by sustained operational stability across core regions like US East and Europe following the containment of March's Middle East physical attacks. Drone strikes damaged data centers in Bahrain (me-south-1) and UAE (me-central-1) starting March 1, causing prolonged outages in those low-traffic availability zones, but AWS's multi-region architecture enabled seamless failover via software mitigations like traffic shifting and S3 Cross-Region Replication, preventing global impact. No new incidents reported in April per the AWS Health Dashboard and Downdetector, bolstered by post-outage safeguards such as senior engineer sign-offs on AI-assisted changes. With 12 days remaining and no scheduled maintenance, escalation in regional conflict remains the key risk catalyst.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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