Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52% implied probability for Elon Musk's Bloomberg Billionaires Index net worth falling below $640 billion on March 31, with 32.5% odds for the 640-650 billion bin, reflecting recent Tesla share price weakness as the primary driver. TSLA closed at $361.83 on March 27, down 2.76% amid broader Magnificent 7 sell-off, Q1 delivery shortfalls, and inflation pressures—eroding Musk's roughly 11% stake plus options, worth over $140 billion at current $1.36 trillion market cap. Bloomberg values his 44% SpaceX-xAI stake conservatively at about $450 billion post-February merger, versus Forbes' higher $810 billion aggregate. With three trading days left, volatility from economic data or Tesla updates could swing the closely contested sub-$650 billion range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено<640 млрд 53%
640–650 млрд 32%
650–660 млрд 8%
710 млрд+ 2.8%
$635,050 Объем
$635,050 Объем
<640 млрд
53%
640–650 млрд
32%
650–660 млрд
8%
660-670 млрд
2%
670-680 млрд
2%
680-690 млрд
1%
690-700 млрд
<1%
700-710 млрд
1%
710 млрд+
3%
<640 млрд 53%
640–650 млрд 32%
650–660 млрд 8%
710 млрд+ 2.8%
$635,050 Объем
$635,050 Объем
<640 млрд
53%
640–650 млрд
32%
650–660 млрд
8%
660-670 млрд
2%
670-680 млрд
2%
680-690 млрд
1%
690-700 млрд
<1%
700-710 млрд
1%
710 млрд+
3%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Открытие рынка: Feb 25, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52% implied probability for Elon Musk's Bloomberg Billionaires Index net worth falling below $640 billion on March 31, with 32.5% odds for the 640-650 billion bin, reflecting recent Tesla share price weakness as the primary driver. TSLA closed at $361.83 on March 27, down 2.76% amid broader Magnificent 7 sell-off, Q1 delivery shortfalls, and inflation pressures—eroding Musk's roughly 11% stake plus options, worth over $140 billion at current $1.36 trillion market cap. Bloomberg values his 44% SpaceX-xAI stake conservatively at about $450 billion post-February merger, versus Forbes' higher $810 billion aggregate. With three trading days left, volatility from economic data or Tesla updates could swing the closely contested sub-$650 billion range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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