Trader consensus heavily favors Anthropic with 70% implied odds of fielding the top AI model by end of April, propelled by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's commanding lead on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it excels in overall Elo ratings, coding, and vision benchmarks ahead of GPT-4o and Gemini 1.5 Pro. This dominance, cemented since its June release, underscores Anthropic's edge in scalable reasoning capabilities amid intensifying competition. Google (8.5%) and OpenAI (6.5%) linger as challengers, buoyed by Gemini 2.0 previews and o1 reasoning models' recent gains, though neither has displaced Claude yet. DeepSeek (3.5%) and Moonshot (3.0%) reflect rising Chinese efficiency in open-weight LLMs, but traders eye potential shifts from xAI's Grok 3 or Mistral updates before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWhich company has the best AI model end of April?
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Anthropic 70%
Google 9%
OpenAI 7%
DeepSeek 3.8%
$36,921 Объем
$36,921 Объем

Anthropic
70%

9%

OpenAI
7%

DeepSeek
4%

Moonshot
3%

Mistral
2%

xAI
2%

Baidu
2%

Alibaba
1%

Meituan
1%

Z.ai
1%

Amazon
1%

ByteDance
1%
Anthropic 70%
Google 9%
OpenAI 7%
DeepSeek 3.8%
$36,921 Объем
$36,921 Объем

Anthropic
70%

9%

OpenAI
7%

DeepSeek
4%

Moonshot
3%

Mistral
2%

xAI
2%

Baidu
2%

Alibaba
1%

Meituan
1%

Z.ai
1%

Amazon
1%

ByteDance
1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors Anthropic with 70% implied odds of fielding the top AI model by end of April, propelled by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's commanding lead on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it excels in overall Elo ratings, coding, and vision benchmarks ahead of GPT-4o and Gemini 1.5 Pro. This dominance, cemented since its June release, underscores Anthropic's edge in scalable reasoning capabilities amid intensifying competition. Google (8.5%) and OpenAI (6.5%) linger as challengers, buoyed by Gemini 2.0 previews and o1 reasoning models' recent gains, though neither has displaced Claude yet. DeepSeek (3.5%) and Moonshot (3.0%) reflect rising Chinese efficiency in open-weight LLMs, but traders eye potential shifts from xAI's Grok 3 or Mistral updates before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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