Trader sentiment on the #2 AI model spot at month-end heavily favors Anthropic at 53.5% implied probability, driven by Claude 3 Opus's sustained high performance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard under Style Control settings, where it has hovered near the top amid volatile rankings. Alibaba's 38.5% odds surged following the April 29 Qwen2 release, which rapidly climbed benchmarks with superior coding and math capabilities, challenging Western frontrunners. Google (36.5%) and DeepSeek (34.5%) benefit from Gemini 1.5 iterations and DeepSeek-V2's efficiency gains, while Moonshot's Kimi and OpenAI's GPT-4o previews add uncertainty. Final leaderboard snapshot hinges on last-minute Elo shifts from user votes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWhich company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 54%
Google 36%
xAI 26%
Baidu 24%

Anthropic
54%

36%

xAI
26%

Baidu
24%

Moonshot
24%

DeepSeek
24%

Z.ai
24%

Mistral
24%

ByteDance
24%

OpenAI
23%

Alibaba
22%

Amazon
22%

Meituan
22%
Anthropic 54%
Google 36%
xAI 26%
Baidu 24%

Anthropic
54%

36%

xAI
26%

Baidu
24%

Moonshot
24%

DeepSeek
24%

Z.ai
24%

Mistral
24%

ByteDance
24%

OpenAI
23%

Alibaba
22%

Amazon
22%

Meituan
22%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on the #2 AI model spot at month-end heavily favors Anthropic at 53.5% implied probability, driven by Claude 3 Opus's sustained high performance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard under Style Control settings, where it has hovered near the top amid volatile rankings. Alibaba's 38.5% odds surged following the April 29 Qwen2 release, which rapidly climbed benchmarks with superior coding and math capabilities, challenging Western frontrunners. Google (36.5%) and DeepSeek (34.5%) benefit from Gemini 1.5 iterations and DeepSeek-V2's efficiency gains, while Moonshot's Kimi and OpenAI's GPT-4o previews add uncertainty. Final leaderboard snapshot hinges on last-minute Elo shifts from user votes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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