Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward xAI's Grok model claiming the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control on) by April's end, with 40.5% implied probability edging out Google's Gemini at 34.5% and Anthropic's Claude at 33.0%. Driving this sentiment is Grok-1.5's rapid Elo climb to near-top-tier contention following its late-March release, bolstered by xAI's massive Memphis Supercluster compute scaling for faster iterations. Google benefits from Gemini 1.5 Pro's long-context prowess, while Anthropic's Claude 3 family excels in reasoning evals, but leaderboard volatility—fueled by user-voted blind tests—keeps outcomes fluid amid Llama 3's April 18 debut pressuring mid-pack rivals. Resolution hinges on final April 30 Elo snapshots, where even small vote swings could flip rankings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWhich company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
xAI 41%
Google 34%
Anthropic 33%
Z.ai 20%

xAI
41%

34%

Anthropic
33%

Z.ai
20%

DeepSeek
20%

Meituan
20%

Amazon
19%

Moonshot
19%

OpenAI
19%

Mistral
19%

Alibaba
11%

ByteDance
11%

Baidu
11%
xAI 41%
Google 34%
Anthropic 33%
Z.ai 20%

xAI
41%

34%

Anthropic
33%

Z.ai
20%

DeepSeek
20%

Meituan
20%

Amazon
19%

Moonshot
19%

OpenAI
19%

Mistral
19%

Alibaba
11%

ByteDance
11%

Baidu
11%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward xAI's Grok model claiming the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control on) by April's end, with 40.5% implied probability edging out Google's Gemini at 34.5% and Anthropic's Claude at 33.0%. Driving this sentiment is Grok-1.5's rapid Elo climb to near-top-tier contention following its late-March release, bolstered by xAI's massive Memphis Supercluster compute scaling for faster iterations. Google benefits from Gemini 1.5 Pro's long-context prowess, while Anthropic's Claude 3 family excels in reasoning evals, but leaderboard volatility—fueled by user-voted blind tests—keeps outcomes fluid amid Llama 3's April 18 debut pressuring mid-pack rivals. Resolution hinges on final April 30 Elo snapshots, where even small vote swings could flip rankings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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