Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin race between no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 (40%) and Anthropic leading at 38.5%, fueled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to the top spot with a 1502 score—surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (1495) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1505). This positioning stems from Anthropic's breakthroughs in agentic reasoning and multi-step tasks, amid a competitive landscape where frontier labs pour billions into compute for scaling laws, yet Elo gains are decelerating after crossing 1500. Key swing factors include upcoming releases like potential Claude 5 or GPT-6, post-training optimizations, and whether architectural innovations overcome data and energy constraints before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакой ИИ компании впервые попадет в 1550 на арене чат-ботов в 2026 году?
Какой ИИ компании впервые попадет в 1550 на арене чат-ботов в 2026 году?
Ни одной в 2026 40%
Anthropic 40%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
$31,464 Объем
$31,464 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Ни одной в 2026
40%
Anthropic
40%
OpenAI
12%
10%
DeepSeek
2%
xAI
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Ни одной в 2026 40%
Anthropic 40%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
$31,464 Объем
$31,464 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Ни одной в 2026
$5,082 Объем
40%
Anthropic
$3,550 Объем
40%
OpenAI
$5,104 Объем
12%
$5,030 Объем
10%
DeepSeek
$2,468 Объем
2%
xAI
$3,961 Объем
1%
Alibaba
$2,122 Объем
1%
Z.ai
$2,060 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$2,086 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin race between no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 (40%) and Anthropic leading at 38.5%, fueled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to the top spot with a 1502 score—surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (1495) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1505). This positioning stems from Anthropic's breakthroughs in agentic reasoning and multi-step tasks, amid a competitive landscape where frontier labs pour billions into compute for scaling laws, yet Elo gains are decelerating after crossing 1500. Key swing factors include upcoming releases like potential Claude 5 or GPT-6, post-training optimizations, and whether architectural innovations overcome data and energy constraints before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Открытие рынка: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Объем
$31,464Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin race between no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 (40%) and Anthropic leading at 38.5%, fueled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to the top spot with a 1502 score—surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (1495) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1505). This positioning stems from Anthropic's breakthroughs in agentic reasoning and multi-step tasks, amid a competitive landscape where frontier labs pour billions into compute for scaling laws, yet Elo gains are decelerating after crossing 1500. Key swing factors include upcoming releases like potential Claude 5 or GPT-6, post-training optimizations, and whether architectural innovations overcome data and energy constraints before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Объем
$31,464Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin race between no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 (40%) and Anthropic leading at 38.5%, fueled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to the top spot with a 1502 score—surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (1495) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1505). This positioning stems from Anthropic's breakthroughs in agentic reasoning and multi-step tasks, amid a competitive landscape where frontier labs pour billions into compute for scaling laws, yet Elo gains are decelerating after crossing 1500. Key swing factors include upcoming releases like potential Claude 5 or GPT-6, post-training optimizations, and whether architectural innovations overcome data and energy constraints before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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