Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race, with no AI model hitting 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026 at 43.5% implied probability, edging out Anthropic at 35%, amid frontier large language models hovering around 1505 Elo. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 maintains a narrow lead over Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro after February releases propelled scores into the low 1500s, but diminishing returns from compute scaling, data bottlenecks, and safety alignments have slowed gains, fueling skepticism on breaching the threshold by year-end. Key differentiators include Anthropic's constitutional AI excelling in multi-turn reasoning and hard prompts, Google's vast training data edge, and OpenAI's anticipated GPT-5.3 reasoning chains as a potential disruptor, with xAI's Grok 4.20 recently entering the top 10. Watch for upcoming model drops and accumulating user votes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакой ИИ компании впервые попадет в 1550 на арене чат-ботов в 2026 году?
Какой ИИ компании впервые попадет в 1550 на арене чат-ботов в 2026 году?
Ни одной в 2026 44%
Anthropic 38%
Google 11%
OpenAI 7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Ни одной в 2026
44%
Anthropic
34%
11%
OpenAI
7%
DeepSeek
2%
Alibaba
2%
xAI
2%
Mistral
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Ни одной в 2026 44%
Anthropic 38%
Google 11%
OpenAI 7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Ни одной в 2026
$0 Объем
44%
Anthropic
$2,667 Объем
34%
$3,866 Объем
11%
OpenAI
$0 Объем
7%
DeepSeek
$0 Объем
2%
Alibaba
$0 Объем
2%
xAI
$0 Объем
2%
Mistral
$0 Объем
1%
Z.ai
$0 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race, with no AI model hitting 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026 at 43.5% implied probability, edging out Anthropic at 35%, amid frontier large language models hovering around 1505 Elo. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 maintains a narrow lead over Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro after February releases propelled scores into the low 1500s, but diminishing returns from compute scaling, data bottlenecks, and safety alignments have slowed gains, fueling skepticism on breaching the threshold by year-end. Key differentiators include Anthropic's constitutional AI excelling in multi-turn reasoning and hard prompts, Google's vast training data edge, and OpenAI's anticipated GPT-5.3 reasoning chains as a potential disruptor, with xAI's Grok 4.20 recently entering the top 10. Watch for upcoming model drops and accumulating user votes.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Открытие рынка: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Объем
$6,533Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race, with no AI model hitting 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026 at 43.5% implied probability, edging out Anthropic at 35%, amid frontier large language models hovering around 1505 Elo. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 maintains a narrow lead over Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro after February releases propelled scores into the low 1500s, but diminishing returns from compute scaling, data bottlenecks, and safety alignments have slowed gains, fueling skepticism on breaching the threshold by year-end. Key differentiators include Anthropic's constitutional AI excelling in multi-turn reasoning and hard prompts, Google's vast training data edge, and OpenAI's anticipated GPT-5.3 reasoning chains as a potential disruptor, with xAI's Grok 4.20 recently entering the top 10. Watch for upcoming model drops and accumulating user votes.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Объем
$6,533Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race, with no AI model hitting 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026 at 43.5% implied probability, edging out Anthropic at 35%, amid frontier large language models hovering around 1505 Elo. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 maintains a narrow lead over Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro after February releases propelled scores into the low 1500s, but diminishing returns from compute scaling, data bottlenecks, and safety alignments have slowed gains, fueling skepticism on breaching the threshold by year-end. Key differentiators include Anthropic's constitutional AI excelling in multi-turn reasoning and hard prompts, Google's vast training data edge, and OpenAI's anticipated GPT-5.3 reasoning chains as a potential disruptor, with xAI's Grok 4.20 recently entering the top 10. Watch for upcoming model drops and accumulating user votes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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