Trader consensus prices an arrest of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei at just 1.3% likelihood, reflecting the complete absence of any credible reports of criminal charges, indictment, or active DOJ or FBI investigation as of early May 2026. Tensions peaked in February-March when Anthropic sued the Trump administration after Pentagon blacklisting over the firm's refusal to enable unrestricted military AI use, including autonomous weapons and surveillance; President Trump threatened civil and criminal consequences, but disputes have since de-escalated via April White House talks and a federal judge blocking punitive measures. With only civil litigation ongoing and Amodei's focus shifting to explosive company growth, traders see no realistic path to arrest barring unforeseen scandals, new antitrust probes, or data misuse allegations escalating criminally.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$160,648 Объем
$160,648 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$160,648 Объем
$160,648 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an arrest of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei at just 1.3% likelihood, reflecting the complete absence of any credible reports of criminal charges, indictment, or active DOJ or FBI investigation as of early May 2026. Tensions peaked in February-March when Anthropic sued the Trump administration after Pentagon blacklisting over the firm's refusal to enable unrestricted military AI use, including autonomous weapons and surveillance; President Trump threatened civil and criminal consequences, but disputes have since de-escalated via April White House talks and a federal judge blocking punitive measures. With only civil litigation ongoing and Amodei's focus shifting to explosive company growth, traders see no realistic path to arrest barring unforeseen scandals, new antitrust probes, or data misuse allegations escalating criminally.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Объем
$160,648Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an arrest of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei at just 1.3% likelihood, reflecting the complete absence of any credible reports of criminal charges, indictment, or active DOJ or FBI investigation as of early May 2026. Tensions peaked in February-March when Anthropic sued the Trump administration after Pentagon blacklisting over the firm's refusal to enable unrestricted military AI use, including autonomous weapons and surveillance; President Trump threatened civil and criminal consequences, but disputes have since de-escalated via April White House talks and a federal judge blocking punitive measures. With only civil litigation ongoing and Amodei's focus shifting to explosive company growth, traders see no realistic path to arrest barring unforeseen scandals, new antitrust probes, or data misuse allegations escalating criminally.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$160,648Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an arrest of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei at just 1.3% likelihood, reflecting the complete absence of any credible reports of criminal charges, indictment, or active DOJ or FBI investigation as of early May 2026. Tensions peaked in February-March when Anthropic sued the Trump administration after Pentagon blacklisting over the firm's refusal to enable unrestricted military AI use, including autonomous weapons and surveillance; President Trump threatened civil and criminal consequences, but disputes have since de-escalated via April White House talks and a federal judge blocking punitive measures. With only civil litigation ongoing and Amodei's focus shifting to explosive company growth, traders see no realistic path to arrest barring unforeseen scandals, new antitrust probes, or data misuse allegations escalating criminally.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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