Google leads trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability for the third-best AI model by April's end, driven by Gemini 1.5 Pro's strong LMSYS Chatbot Arena Elo ratings—hovering around 1280—positioning it just behind OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo and Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus. Baidu (31.5%), DeepSeek (31.5%), and Mistral (31%) follow closely, fueled by recent launches like Baidu's ERNIE 4.0 and DeepSeek-V2, which demonstrated competitive benchmarks in coding and math tasks, eroding Western dominance. Chinese firms including ByteDance, Moonshot, Z.ai, and Meituan (all ~30.5%) benefit from rapid iterations and cost advantages, while xAI and Alibaba trail amid benchmark volatility; traders eye final LMSYS snapshots for resolution amid slipping timelines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWhich company has the third best AI model end of April?
Which company has the third best AI model end of April?
Google 57%
DeepSeek 33%
Mistral 32%
Baidu 32%

57%

DeepSeek
33%

Mistral
32%

Baidu
32%

OpenAI
31%

Alibaba
31%

Amazon
31%

xAI
31%

Moonshot
31%

Z.ai
31%

ByteDance
30%

Meituan
30%

Anthropic
28%
Google 57%
DeepSeek 33%
Mistral 32%
Baidu 32%

57%

DeepSeek
33%

Mistral
32%

Baidu
32%

OpenAI
31%

Alibaba
31%

Amazon
31%

xAI
31%

Moonshot
31%

Z.ai
31%

ByteDance
30%

Meituan
30%

Anthropic
28%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Google leads trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability for the third-best AI model by April's end, driven by Gemini 1.5 Pro's strong LMSYS Chatbot Arena Elo ratings—hovering around 1280—positioning it just behind OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo and Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus. Baidu (31.5%), DeepSeek (31.5%), and Mistral (31%) follow closely, fueled by recent launches like Baidu's ERNIE 4.0 and DeepSeek-V2, which demonstrated competitive benchmarks in coding and math tasks, eroding Western dominance. Chinese firms including ByteDance, Moonshot, Z.ai, and Meituan (all ~30.5%) benefit from rapid iterations and cost advantages, while xAI and Alibaba trail amid benchmark volatility; traders eye final LMSYS snapshots for resolution amid slipping timelines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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