Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by March 31, 2026, driven by current LMSYS Chatbot Arena and aggregated benchmarks like llm-stats.com where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 ranks #2 overall—excelling in reasoning (91.3% GPQA), coding (80.8% SWE-bench), and low hallucinations—trailing only Google's newly released Gemini 3.1 Pro, which leads in multimodal tasks and GPQA (94.3%). Claude Sonnet 4.6, released in February, further bolsters Anthropic's positioning amid a flurry of 2026 launches including GPT-5.4 and Grok 4.20, none of which have displaced it from #2 on key leaderboards. With resolution imminent, a surprise OpenAI update, xAI model drop, or rapid Elo shifts from fresh Arena votes could challenge this dominance, though recent stability favors the status quo.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакая компания имеет вторую лучшую модель ИИ в конце марта?
Какая компания имеет вторую лучшую модель ИИ в конце марта?
Anthropic 98.4%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$525,555 Объем
$525,555 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
98%
xAI
1%
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 98.4%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$525,555 Объем
$525,555 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$95,571 Объем
98%
xAI
$53,073 Объем
1%
$121,212 Объем
<1%
DeepSeek
$151,963 Объем
<1%
OpenAI
$39,611 Объем
<1%
Alibaba
$0 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$0 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$0 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$64,125 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$0 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$0 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by March 31, 2026, driven by current LMSYS Chatbot Arena and aggregated benchmarks like llm-stats.com where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 ranks #2 overall—excelling in reasoning (91.3% GPQA), coding (80.8% SWE-bench), and low hallucinations—trailing only Google's newly released Gemini 3.1 Pro, which leads in multimodal tasks and GPQA (94.3%). Claude Sonnet 4.6, released in February, further bolsters Anthropic's positioning amid a flurry of 2026 launches including GPT-5.4 and Grok 4.20, none of which have displaced it from #2 on key leaderboards. With resolution imminent, a surprise OpenAI update, xAI model drop, or rapid Elo shifts from fresh Arena votes could challenge this dominance, though recent stability favors the status quo.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Объем
$525,555Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by March 31, 2026, driven by current LMSYS Chatbot Arena and aggregated benchmarks like llm-stats.com where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 ranks #2 overall—excelling in reasoning (91.3% GPQA), coding (80.8% SWE-bench), and low hallucinations—trailing only Google's newly released Gemini 3.1 Pro, which leads in multimodal tasks and GPQA (94.3%). Claude Sonnet 4.6, released in February, further bolsters Anthropic's positioning amid a flurry of 2026 launches including GPT-5.4 and Grok 4.20, none of which have displaced it from #2 on key leaderboards. With resolution imminent, a surprise OpenAI update, xAI model drop, or rapid Elo shifts from fresh Arena votes could challenge this dominance, though recent stability favors the status quo.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$525,555Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by March 31, 2026, driven by current LMSYS Chatbot Arena and aggregated benchmarks like llm-stats.com where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 ranks #2 overall—excelling in reasoning (91.3% GPQA), coding (80.8% SWE-bench), and low hallucinations—trailing only Google's newly released Gemini 3.1 Pro, which leads in multimodal tasks and GPQA (94.3%). Claude Sonnet 4.6, released in February, further bolsters Anthropic's positioning amid a flurry of 2026 launches including GPT-5.4 and Grok 4.20, none of which have displaced it from #2 on key leaderboards. With resolution imminent, a surprise OpenAI update, xAI model drop, or rapid Elo shifts from fresh Arena votes could challenge this dominance, though recent stability favors the status quo.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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