Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Anthropic at 43.5% implied probability for the second-best AI model by June's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent February dominance in LMSYS Chatbot Arena benchmarks for deep reasoning, coding, and low hallucinations, closely trailing presumed leader GPT-5.4 while outpacing rivals in professional tasks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro holds 23% on multimodal prowess and 1M+ token context windows from its late-February launch, positioning it as a strong contender amid rapid iteration cycles. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 garners 17% for balanced all-round performance post-March rollout, but faces pressure from efficiency-focused challengers like DeepSeek's V3.2 (8.3%) and xAI's creative Grok 4.20 (6.5%). April previews of GPT-5.5, Claude Mythos, and DeepSeek V4 loom as key catalysts that could reshape leaderboard standings before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакая компания имеет вторую лучшую модель ИИ в конце июня?
Какая компания имеет вторую лучшую модель ИИ в конце июня?
Anthropic 44%
Google 23%
OpenAI 16%
DeepSeek 8.3%
$331,628 Объем
$331,628 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
44%
23%
OpenAI
16%
DeepSeek
8%
xAI
7%
Meituan
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 44%
Google 23%
OpenAI 16%
DeepSeek 8.3%
$331,628 Объем
$331,628 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$4,036 Объем
44%
$2,117 Объем
23%
OpenAI
$31,022 Объем
16%
DeepSeek
$244,875 Объем
8%
xAI
$10,771 Объем
7%
Meituan
$30,470 Объем
1%
Alibaba
$1,248 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$890 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$1,648 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$4,551 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Anthropic at 43.5% implied probability for the second-best AI model by June's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent February dominance in LMSYS Chatbot Arena benchmarks for deep reasoning, coding, and low hallucinations, closely trailing presumed leader GPT-5.4 while outpacing rivals in professional tasks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro holds 23% on multimodal prowess and 1M+ token context windows from its late-February launch, positioning it as a strong contender amid rapid iteration cycles. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 garners 17% for balanced all-round performance post-March rollout, but faces pressure from efficiency-focused challengers like DeepSeek's V3.2 (8.3%) and xAI's creative Grok 4.20 (6.5%). April previews of GPT-5.5, Claude Mythos, and DeepSeek V4 loom as key catalysts that could reshape leaderboard standings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Объем
$331,628Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Anthropic at 43.5% implied probability for the second-best AI model by June's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent February dominance in LMSYS Chatbot Arena benchmarks for deep reasoning, coding, and low hallucinations, closely trailing presumed leader GPT-5.4 while outpacing rivals in professional tasks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro holds 23% on multimodal prowess and 1M+ token context windows from its late-February launch, positioning it as a strong contender amid rapid iteration cycles. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 garners 17% for balanced all-round performance post-March rollout, but faces pressure from efficiency-focused challengers like DeepSeek's V3.2 (8.3%) and xAI's creative Grok 4.20 (6.5%). April previews of GPT-5.5, Claude Mythos, and DeepSeek V4 loom as key catalysts that could reshape leaderboard standings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$331,628Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Anthropic at 43.5% implied probability for the second-best AI model by June's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent February dominance in LMSYS Chatbot Arena benchmarks for deep reasoning, coding, and low hallucinations, closely trailing presumed leader GPT-5.4 while outpacing rivals in professional tasks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro holds 23% on multimodal prowess and 1M+ token context windows from its late-February launch, positioning it as a strong contender amid rapid iteration cycles. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 garners 17% for balanced all-round performance post-March rollout, but faces pressure from efficiency-focused challengers like DeepSeek's V3.2 (8.3%) and xAI's creative Grok 4.20 (6.5%). April previews of GPT-5.5, Claude Mythos, and DeepSeek V4 loom as key catalysts that could reshape leaderboard standings before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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