Trader consensus prices a 71.5% implied probability for the CDC issuing a Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips due to high disease risk—by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the May 8 activation of the agency's Emergency Operations Center at Level 3 in response to a hantavirus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which reported 8 suspected cases and 3 deaths linked to rodent exposure in Cape Verde and Spain, though public risk remains low with no person-to-person spread confirmed. This fresh event amplifies concerns over ongoing H5N1 avian influenza outbreaks in U.S. poultry and dairy cattle, with 71 sporadic human infections since 2024 including severe pediatric cases, per CDC surveillance, despite no detected sustained transmission. Existing Level 2 notices for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia signal potential escalations, while upcoming Northern Hemisphere respiratory season and monthly CDC flu monitoring reports could tip dynamics further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCDC выпустит предупреждение 3-го уровня до 31 декабря?
CDC выпустит предупреждение 3-го уровня до 31 декабря?
Да
$117,030 Объем
$117,030 Объем
Да
$117,030 Объем
$117,030 Объем
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 71.5% implied probability for the CDC issuing a Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips due to high disease risk—by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the May 8 activation of the agency's Emergency Operations Center at Level 3 in response to a hantavirus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which reported 8 suspected cases and 3 deaths linked to rodent exposure in Cape Verde and Spain, though public risk remains low with no person-to-person spread confirmed. This fresh event amplifies concerns over ongoing H5N1 avian influenza outbreaks in U.S. poultry and dairy cattle, with 71 sporadic human infections since 2024 including severe pediatric cases, per CDC surveillance, despite no detected sustained transmission. Existing Level 2 notices for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia signal potential escalations, while upcoming Northern Hemisphere respiratory season and monthly CDC flu monitoring reports could tip dynamics further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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