Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 66.5% implied probability that the CDC will not issue a Level 3 "Avoid Nonessential Travel" warning by December 31, driven by current measles outbreak data showing 248 confirmed U.S. cases across 30 jurisdictions as of early December—primarily among unvaccinated individuals—with no sustained community-wide transmission meeting Level 3 criteria of intense, ongoing spread. Recent CDC Health Alert Network updates emphasize vaccination drives amid Chicago's cluster of over 60 cases linked to international travelers, but stop short of escalating travel notices, which are reserved for high-risk international destinations like active polio zones. Epidemiological indicators, including R0 estimates below epidemic thresholds, support stability; upcoming surveillance reports could shift odds if new clusters emerge before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоCDC выпустит предупреждение 3-го уровня до 31 декабря?
CDC выпустит предупреждение 3-го уровня до 31 декабря?
Да
$93,333 Объем
$93,333 Объем
Да
$93,333 Объем
$93,333 Объем
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 66.5% implied probability that the CDC will not issue a Level 3 "Avoid Nonessential Travel" warning by December 31, driven by current measles outbreak data showing 248 confirmed U.S. cases across 30 jurisdictions as of early December—primarily among unvaccinated individuals—with no sustained community-wide transmission meeting Level 3 criteria of intense, ongoing spread. Recent CDC Health Alert Network updates emphasize vaccination drives amid Chicago's cluster of over 60 cases linked to international travelers, but stop short of escalating travel notices, which are reserved for high-risk international destinations like active polio zones. Epidemiological indicators, including R0 estimates below epidemic thresholds, support stability; upcoming surveillance reports could shift odds if new clusters emerge before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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