Preliminary NOAA monitoring data and ERA5 reanalysis confirm April 2026's global land-ocean surface temperature anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 baseline, driving trader consensus to 95.9% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin on Polymarket. This positioning reflects elevated sea surface temperatures—the second-warmest April on record per Copernicus—amid ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning from prior El Niño peaks, with consistent signals from satellite and station observations ranking it among the top five warmest Aprils historically. Final NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index release, expected around May 10, could prompt minor revisions from late-arriving data; discrepancies with datasets like Berkeley Earth or unexpected cooling artifacts might shift outcomes, though model ensembles show tight agreement within this range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоАпрель 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)
Апрель 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)
1,15–1,19ºC 95.8%
1,20–1,24°C 2.5%
1,10–1,14ºC 1.7%
>1,29ºC <1%
$332,344 Объем
$332,344 Объем
10 мая 2026 г.
<1,10ºC
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
2%
1,15–1,19ºC
96%
1,20–1,24°C
3%
1,25–1,29ºC
<1%
>1,29ºC
1%
1,15–1,19ºC 95.8%
1,20–1,24°C 2.5%
1,10–1,14ºC 1.7%
>1,29ºC <1%
$332,344 Объем
$332,344 Объем
10 мая 2026 г.
<1,10ºC
$54,938 Объем
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$61,450 Объем
2%
1,15–1,19ºC
$47,150 Объем
96%
1,20–1,24°C
$66,845 Объем
3%
1,25–1,29ºC
$57,422 Объем
<1%
>1,29ºC
$44,538 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary NOAA monitoring data and ERA5 reanalysis confirm April 2026's global land-ocean surface temperature anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 baseline, driving trader consensus to 95.9% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin on Polymarket. This positioning reflects elevated sea surface temperatures—the second-warmest April on record per Copernicus—amid ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning from prior El Niño peaks, with consistent signals from satellite and station observations ranking it among the top five warmest Aprils historically. Final NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index release, expected around May 10, could prompt minor revisions from late-arriving data; discrepancies with datasets like Berkeley Earth or unexpected cooling artifacts might shift outcomes, though model ensembles show tight agreement within this range.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Объем
$332,344Дата окончания
10 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary NOAA monitoring data and ERA5 reanalysis confirm April 2026's global land-ocean surface temperature anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 baseline, driving trader consensus to 95.9% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin on Polymarket. This positioning reflects elevated sea surface temperatures—the second-warmest April on record per Copernicus—amid ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning from prior El Niño peaks, with consistent signals from satellite and station observations ranking it among the top five warmest Aprils historically. Final NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index release, expected around May 10, could prompt minor revisions from late-arriving data; discrepancies with datasets like Berkeley Earth or unexpected cooling artifacts might shift outcomes, though model ensembles show tight agreement within this range.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Объем
$332,344Дата окончания
10 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary NOAA monitoring data and ERA5 reanalysis confirm April 2026's global land-ocean surface temperature anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 baseline, driving trader consensus to 95.9% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin on Polymarket. This positioning reflects elevated sea surface temperatures—the second-warmest April on record per Copernicus—amid ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning from prior El Niño peaks, with consistent signals from satellite and station observations ranking it among the top five warmest Aprils historically. Final NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index release, expected around May 10, could prompt minor revisions from late-arriving data; discrepancies with datasets like Berkeley Earth or unexpected cooling artifacts might shift outcomes, though model ensembles show tight agreement within this range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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