Traders on Polymarket are closely split on Seoul's April precipitation, pricing 60-65mm highest at 42% implied probability, neck-and-neck with <40mm and nearby bins like 45-50mm and 55-60mm at 40%. This stems from Korea Meteorological Administration outlooks for near-normal totals—historical April average of 93mm with high variability (standard deviation ~60mm) driven by migratory cold fronts and early monsoon precursors. Recent ECMWF seasonal ensembles project 50-80mm medians, favoring moderate bins if neutral ENSO sustains subtropical ridge dominance for drier spells, versus wetter outcomes from enhanced baroclinic instability. Early April dryness tilts sentiment lower, but mid-month model updates could pivot odds as frontal passages intensify.