Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just a 17% implied probability to an AI bubble burst by December 31, 2026, reflecting sustained enterprise demand and revenue surges at leaders like Anthropic—whose sales are quadrupling on Claude model contracts—and OpenAI, now valued at $852 billion post-funding. NVIDIA's stock rebounded to $182 amid robust AI chip demand, despite a 6% year-to-date dip, while global AI spending forecasts hit $2.52 trillion for 2026. Bubble fears persist from $650–700 billion Big Tech capex, skyrocketing energy costs, and startup fragility, but no major contraction has materialized. Watch Q2 earnings from NVIDIA and hyperscalers, plus regulatory scrutiny on AI power usage, as potential catalysts for sentiment shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПузырь ИИ лопнул...?
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$2,550,738 Объем
31 декабря 2026 года
17%
$2,550,738 Объем
31 декабря 2026 года
17%
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 19, 2025, 7:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just a 17% implied probability to an AI bubble burst by December 31, 2026, reflecting sustained enterprise demand and revenue surges at leaders like Anthropic—whose sales are quadrupling on Claude model contracts—and OpenAI, now valued at $852 billion post-funding. NVIDIA's stock rebounded to $182 amid robust AI chip demand, despite a 6% year-to-date dip, while global AI spending forecasts hit $2.52 trillion for 2026. Bubble fears persist from $650–700 billion Big Tech capex, skyrocketing energy costs, and startup fragility, but no major contraction has materialized. Watch Q2 earnings from NVIDIA and hyperscalers, plus regulatory scrutiny on AI power usage, as potential catalysts for sentiment shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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