Recent U.S. economic data have reinforced trader expectations for no change at the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 meeting. Stronger-than-expected May employment gains, stable unemployment near 4.3-4.4 percent, and persistent inflation pressures—driven by elevated energy prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions—have kept core PCE readings above target. FOMC participants have signaled a data-dependent stance, with recent minutes and projections showing limited support for near-term easing or tightening. Markets now price the federal funds rate remaining in the 3.50-3.75 percent range through year-end, aligning with revised economist forecasts that defer any cuts until 2027. Softer inflation prints or labor-market softening could still shift probabilities modestly before the September decision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNo change 70%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 12.5%
50+ bps decrease 2.5%
$337,232 Объем
$337,232 Объем
16 сент. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
13%
No change
70%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 70%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 12.5%
50+ bps decrease 2.5%
$337,232 Объем
$337,232 Объем
16 сент. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
$54,945 Объем
2%
25 bps decrease
$68,170 Объем
13%
No change
$87,839 Объем
70%
25 bps increase
$70,361 Объем
16%
50+ bps increase
$55,917 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data have reinforced trader expectations for no change at the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 meeting. Stronger-than-expected May employment gains, stable unemployment near 4.3-4.4 percent, and persistent inflation pressures—driven by elevated energy prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions—have kept core PCE readings above target. FOMC participants have signaled a data-dependent stance, with recent minutes and projections showing limited support for near-term easing or tightening. Markets now price the federal funds rate remaining in the 3.50-3.75 percent range through year-end, aligning with revised economist forecasts that defer any cuts until 2027. Softer inflation prints or labor-market softening could still shift probabilities modestly before the September decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Объем
$337,232Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data have reinforced trader expectations for no change at the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 meeting. Stronger-than-expected May employment gains, stable unemployment near 4.3-4.4 percent, and persistent inflation pressures—driven by elevated energy prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions—have kept core PCE readings above target. FOMC participants have signaled a data-dependent stance, with recent minutes and projections showing limited support for near-term easing or tightening. Markets now price the federal funds rate remaining in the 3.50-3.75 percent range through year-end, aligning with revised economist forecasts that defer any cuts until 2027. Softer inflation prints or labor-market softening could still shift probabilities modestly before the September decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$337,232Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic data have reinforced trader expectations for no change at the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 meeting. Stronger-than-expected May employment gains, stable unemployment near 4.3-4.4 percent, and persistent inflation pressures—driven by elevated energy prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions—have kept core PCE readings above target. FOMC participants have signaled a data-dependent stance, with recent minutes and projections showing limited support for near-term easing or tightening. Markets now price the federal funds rate remaining in the 3.50-3.75 percent range through year-end, aligning with revised economist forecasts that defer any cuts until 2027. Softer inflation prints or labor-market softening could still shift probabilities modestly before the September decision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы