The Federal Reserve held its target range for the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting on a 9–3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike amid elevated inflation pressures. June CPI registered 3.5% year-over-year, supported by supply shocks in energy linked to Middle East tensions, while the labor market remains resilient with steady job gains and little change in unemployment. Traders in fed funds futures and prediction markets have priced in roughly 60–75% odds of at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end, with the September 16–17 meeting serving as the primary near-term catalyst. Market-implied odds reflect the tension between the Fed’s price-stability mandate and baseline forecasts from several banks that anticipate rates holding through 2026 before any adjustment.