Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI of 0.3% month-over-month, combined with resilient August nonfarm payrolls and rising energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has driven market-implied odds of a 25 basis point Fed hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to 92%. Traders are pricing in this outcome on the view that persistent inflation above the 2% target and a still-solid labor market warrant tighter policy under Chair Kevin Warsh’s more hawkish stance, shifting the federal funds target range from 3.50-3.75%. While this consensus reflects strong real-money conviction, a hold remains possible if the FOMC emphasizes uncertainty around midterms or incoming data revisions, though such a surprise appears limited given the proximity to the meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПовышение
92% вероятность
$13,660 Объем
$13,660 Объем
31 дек. 2028 г.
Повышение
92% вероятность
$13,660 Объем
$13,660 Объем
31 дек. 2028 г.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent hotter-than-expected August core CPI of 0.3% month-over-month, combined with resilient August nonfarm payrolls and rising energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has driven market-implied odds of a 25 basis point Fed hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to 92%. Traders are pricing in this outcome on the view that persistent inflation above the 2% target and a still-solid labor market warrant tighter policy under Chair Kevin Warsh’s more hawkish stance, shifting the federal funds target range from 3.50-3.75%. While this consensus reflects strong real-money conviction, a hold remains possible if the FOMC emphasizes uncertainty around midterms or incoming data revisions, though such a surprise appears limited given the proximity to the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Объем
$13,660Дата окончания
31 дек. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent hotter-than-expected August core CPI of 0.3% month-over-month, combined with resilient August nonfarm payrolls and rising energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has driven market-implied odds of a 25 basis point Fed hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to 92%. Traders are pricing in this outcome on the view that persistent inflation above the 2% target and a still-solid labor market warrant tighter policy under Chair Kevin Warsh’s more hawkish stance, shifting the federal funds target range from 3.50-3.75%. While this consensus reflects strong real-money conviction, a hold remains possible if the FOMC emphasizes uncertainty around midterms or incoming data revisions, though such a surprise appears limited given the proximity to the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$13,660Дата окончания
31 дек. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI of 0.3% month-over-month, combined with resilient August nonfarm payrolls and rising energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has driven market-implied odds of a 25 basis point Fed hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to 92%. Traders are pricing in this outcome on the view that persistent inflation above the 2% target and a still-solid labor market warrant tighter policy under Chair Kevin Warsh’s more hawkish stance, shifting the federal funds target range from 3.50-3.75%. While this consensus reflects strong real-money conviction, a hold remains possible if the FOMC emphasizes uncertainty around midterms or incoming data revisions, though such a surprise appears limited given the proximity to the meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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