**Elevated inflation persisting well above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by Middle East geopolitical tensions and solid economic growth, has driven market-implied odds heavily toward “Other” sequences (84.5%) that incorporate at least one rate hike across the July, September, and October 2026 FOMC meetings.** The July 29 decision held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Subsequent data and communications under Chair Kevin Warsh have sustained hawkish sentiment, with futures and prediction markets now pricing roughly 78–85% odds of a September hike ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and its dot plot. The Pause–Pause–Pause path remains a distant 12.5% outcome, reflecting limited trader confidence in repeated holds given the inflation trajectory and policy signals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOther 85%
Pause–Pause–Pause 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.0%
$760,996 Объем
$760,996 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
13%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
85%
Other 85%
Pause–Pause–Pause 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.0%
$760,996 Объем
$760,996 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
$256,363 Объем
13%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$64,021 Объем
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,698 Объем
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$29,422 Объем
1%
Other
$324,004 Объем
85%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation persisting well above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by Middle East geopolitical tensions and solid economic growth, has driven market-implied odds heavily toward “Other” sequences (84.5%) that incorporate at least one rate hike across the July, September, and October 2026 FOMC meetings.**
The July 29 decision held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Subsequent data and communications under Chair Kevin Warsh have sustained hawkish sentiment, with futures and prediction markets now pricing roughly 78–85% odds of a September hike ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and its dot plot. The Pause–Pause–Pause path remains a distant 12.5% outcome, reflecting limited trader confidence in repeated holds given the inflation trajectory and policy signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Объем
$760,996Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation persisting well above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by Middle East geopolitical tensions and solid economic growth, has driven market-implied odds heavily toward “Other” sequences (84.5%) that incorporate at least one rate hike across the July, September, and October 2026 FOMC meetings.**
The July 29 decision held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Subsequent data and communications under Chair Kevin Warsh have sustained hawkish sentiment, with futures and prediction markets now pricing roughly 78–85% odds of a September hike ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and its dot plot. The Pause–Pause–Pause path remains a distant 12.5% outcome, reflecting limited trader confidence in repeated holds given the inflation trajectory and policy signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$760,996Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated inflation persisting well above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by Middle East geopolitical tensions and solid economic growth, has driven market-implied odds heavily toward “Other” sequences (84.5%) that incorporate at least one rate hike across the July, September, and October 2026 FOMC meetings.** The July 29 decision held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Subsequent data and communications under Chair Kevin Warsh have sustained hawkish sentiment, with futures and prediction markets now pricing roughly 78–85% odds of a September hike ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and its dot plot. The Pause–Pause–Pause path remains a distant 12.5% outcome, reflecting limited trader confidence in repeated holds given the inflation trajectory and policy signals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы