Polymarket traders assign a leading 48% implied probability to exactly one dissent at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, driven by deepening policy rifts exposed in the June minutes, where a couple of officials eyed rate hikes amid sticky inflation. Hotter-than-expected June CPI (up 0.1% m/m core) and robust July payrolls (206k jobs added) have amplified hawkish pushback from voices like Lorie Logan and Mary Daly, contrasting Chair Powell's measured tone. This positions 1-2 dissents (37%) ahead of unanimous outcomes (12.5%), with CME FedWatch signaling 96% odds of steady rates, tempering expectations for 4+ fractures (22.5%) despite historical rarity of post-2022 dissent.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено1 48%
3 32%
4+ 23%
0 19%
0
13%
1
48%
2
36%
3
32%
4+
23%
1 48%
3 32%
4+ 23%
0 19%
0
13%
1
48%
2
36%
3
32%
4+
23%
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a leading 48% implied probability to exactly one dissent at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, driven by deepening policy rifts exposed in the June minutes, where a couple of officials eyed rate hikes amid sticky inflation. Hotter-than-expected June CPI (up 0.1% m/m core) and robust July payrolls (206k jobs added) have amplified hawkish pushback from voices like Lorie Logan and Mary Daly, contrasting Chair Powell's measured tone. This positions 1-2 dissents (37%) ahead of unanimous outcomes (12.5%), with CME FedWatch signaling 96% odds of steady rates, tempering expectations for 4+ fractures (22.5%) despite historical rarity of post-2022 dissent.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы