US-Iran nuclear negotiations collapsed in late February 2026 after US-Israeli strikes targeted Iranian facilities including Natanz and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, halting indirect talks mediated by Oman despite earlier progress on stockpile limits. On March 25, the US presented a 15-point proposal demanding Iran dismantle its nuclear program, end all uranium enrichment, and hand over 450 kg of 60% enriched uranium—a nonstarter for Tehran, which insists on its NPT right to enrich while rejecting zero-enrichment terms. IAEA reports highlight Iran's pre-strike stockpile and inspection barriers, amid ongoing Israeli strikes on nuclear sites. With conflict escalating and April 30 approaching, trader consensus prices an 82.5% "No" probability, viewing diplomatic capitulation as improbable absent de-escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоИран согласен прекратить обогащение урана к 30 апреля?
Иран согласен прекратить обогащение урана к 30 апреля?
Да
$136,897 Объем
$136,897 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
Да
$136,897 Объем
$136,897 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-Iran nuclear negotiations collapsed in late February 2026 after US-Israeli strikes targeted Iranian facilities including Natanz and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, halting indirect talks mediated by Oman despite earlier progress on stockpile limits. On March 25, the US presented a 15-point proposal demanding Iran dismantle its nuclear program, end all uranium enrichment, and hand over 450 kg of 60% enriched uranium—a nonstarter for Tehran, which insists on its NPT right to enrich while rejecting zero-enrichment terms. IAEA reports highlight Iran's pre-strike stockpile and inspection barriers, amid ongoing Israeli strikes on nuclear sites. With conflict escalating and April 30 approaching, trader consensus prices an 82.5% "No" probability, viewing diplomatic capitulation as improbable absent de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
Объем
$136,897Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-Iran nuclear negotiations collapsed in late February 2026 after US-Israeli strikes targeted Iranian facilities including Natanz and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, halting indirect talks mediated by Oman despite earlier progress on stockpile limits. On March 25, the US presented a 15-point proposal demanding Iran dismantle its nuclear program, end all uranium enrichment, and hand over 450 kg of 60% enriched uranium—a nonstarter for Tehran, which insists on its NPT right to enrich while rejecting zero-enrichment terms. IAEA reports highlight Iran's pre-strike stockpile and inspection barriers, amid ongoing Israeli strikes on nuclear sites. With conflict escalating and April 30 approaching, trader consensus prices an 82.5% "No" probability, viewing diplomatic capitulation as improbable absent de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$136,897Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran nuclear negotiations collapsed in late February 2026 after US-Israeli strikes targeted Iranian facilities including Natanz and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, halting indirect talks mediated by Oman despite earlier progress on stockpile limits. On March 25, the US presented a 15-point proposal demanding Iran dismantle its nuclear program, end all uranium enrichment, and hand over 450 kg of 60% enriched uranium—a nonstarter for Tehran, which insists on its NPT right to enrich while rejecting zero-enrichment terms. IAEA reports highlight Iran's pre-strike stockpile and inspection barriers, amid ongoing Israeli strikes on nuclear sites. With conflict escalating and April 30 approaching, trader consensus prices an 82.5% "No" probability, viewing diplomatic capitulation as improbable absent de-escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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