Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, at just 3.8%, driven by the absence of observable preparations for a complex amphibious assault amid strong U.S. deterrence via the Taiwan Relations Act, arms sales, and alliance commitments. In the past 30 days, People's Liberation Army (PLA) activities—such as increased aircraft incursions across the Taiwan Strait median line and naval patrols around early October—have remained routine without escalation signals like troop mobilizations or logistics buildups seen in prior "Joint Sword" drills after President Lai Ching-te's May inauguration. Beijing's economic pressures, including property sector woes and trade tensions, further dampen invasion prospects. Scenarios that could shift odds include a Taiwan independence declaration, U.S. policy reversal, or rapid PLA naval breakthroughs, though structural barriers persist.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$1,757,266 Объем
$1,757,266 Объем
Да
$1,757,266 Объем
$1,757,266 Объем
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, at just 3.8%, driven by the absence of observable preparations for a complex amphibious assault amid strong U.S. deterrence via the Taiwan Relations Act, arms sales, and alliance commitments. In the past 30 days, People's Liberation Army (PLA) activities—such as increased aircraft incursions across the Taiwan Strait median line and naval patrols around early October—have remained routine without escalation signals like troop mobilizations or logistics buildups seen in prior "Joint Sword" drills after President Lai Ching-te's May inauguration. Beijing's economic pressures, including property sector woes and trade tensions, further dampen invasion prospects. Scenarios that could shift odds include a Taiwan independence declaration, U.S. policy reversal, or rapid PLA naval breakthroughs, though structural barriers persist.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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